Dont think its a cold start thing , ran mission with cold start and air start same results what gets me is that when Iam on the server with other players they have the probe light that works but I don't, but this is happening off line also. Tried night refueling with kc135/kc130 and sb3 same results with all three but because the fuel pods are closer to the fuselage and not on the wing tip like the 135 the 130 and sb3's nav lights are not as bright and don't hide the basket and its a little easier with the NVG
(EDIT Just found this post recently)
https://forums.eagle.ru/showthread.php?t=277991&highlight=probe+light