@BIGNEWYCan you confirm that this effect is a result of the missile looking down at the target, which might cause the target to get lost in the ground clutter (notch)?
The effect does seem less pronounced when firing from low to high, which makes me think its being caused by a notch (high to low shots). Here are a couple low-to-high tracks:
fox3_test_3_30k_2.trkfox3_test_3_30k.trk
Corresponding tacviews:
Tacview-20210202-115344-DCS-fox3_test_low_hi.zip.acmiTacview-20210202-115726-DCS.zip_low_hi.acmi
I did see 1/6 missiles dive for chaff while looking up at a target, but anecdotally, when the missile is looking down there seems to be a very high chance (greater than 50%?). Given that AAMRAMs loft, this will mean that a high percentage of missile shots will be looking down.
I understand that a bigger sample size would be needed to determine anything empirically.
Any additional insight would be greatly appreciated.