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"Bad time to buy a PC?"


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Is anyone else following the prices of DDR4 memory and graphic cards in disbelief?

 

I have a relatively old PC now, 4 years old i7 4770K with nVidia GTX 770. It was working pretty well for most of the time for HD resolution, but last year I upgraded to 4K monitor - mostly for photo editing, not gaming. Of course poor GTX 770 could not cope with 4K, and I was looking to replace it with GTX 1080 or GTX 1080Ti cards. I also wanted to upgrade the whole computer - buy a i7 8700K, go from 16GB of memory to 32GB (also for photo editing, although it now looks it could help with DCS too), but the i7 8700K just wasn't available for very long time after the launch, or was selling at a prices much higher than MSRP. Also, the DDR4 modules were selling at twice the price from mid-2016 - most of the people were recommending to wait for the early 2018, when new DDR4 factories should lower the prices of memory, and nVidia should be launching their new line of graphic cards before summer of 2018.

 

Well, I have waited for several months and this is the result on the memory market: G.Skill RipJaws V DIMM Kit 32GB, DDR4-3200 is a popular memory kit from 2015, so in terms of computer parts it should be ancient and cheap, right?

 

3UH8y7z.jpg

 

 

Yes, price of this DDR4 kit has climbed down from 390 EUR to 355... But it debuted at 300 EUR in October 2015, and could be had (for a short time) for 149 EUR! :doh: And it also doesn't look like it's plummeting now.

 

 

Also, while I was waiting for the memory prices to come down the new cryptocurrency craze has started. I imagined it would be short lived, and prices would come down after the various coins started to loose their steep upwards curve... Well, that also didn't happen.

 

This is an interesting price curve of Palit GeForce GTX 1080 Dual OC, 8GB, months ago one of the cheapest models with better than stock cooling:

catbCIk.jpg

 

 

First sold in January 2017, it started selling for 700 EUR. It had ups and downs, lowest price was 443 EUR just before AMD revealed they can not compete with this card, and it now sells for 707 EUR, if you can get it. That is a graphic chip from May 2016, almost two years old, and only a few months away from the new nVidia line, Volta...

 

As we see, the price of graphic card is not proportionate to the cryptocurrency value, which plummeted some time ago. Apparently cryptocurrency miners are now anticipating another rise in value, and are mining as much as they can before it starts to become too complex for their rigs, and then they change for another currency (there seems to be no end to them):

 

cryptocurrency-crash-goldman-sachs-bitcoin-ripple-ethereum-price-1226509.jpg

 

 

 

Sooo... Where was I going with all this? Since I have started to look for an upgrade several months ago I haven't bought any module here. I also haven't bought any game on Steam, or elsewhere. And I also haven't made any hardware purchase, because I was always waiting for that perfect pricing.

 

Anyone else in this situation? How do you think this will turn in couple of months? Will we see launch of nVidia Volta completely taken over by miners, like it happened with AMD, and gamers won't be able to get any card even close to MSRP?

 

Will the focus of memory manufacturers on mobile phone modules continue to hold the prices of DDR this high?

 

Will we see any other "shortage", and another PC part driven to stratospheric prices? All these price hikes remind me of price increases of hard disk drives after the floods in Thailand in 2011 - it took almost 2 years for the prices to go below the pre-flood prices, and since then the prices are not falling as quickly as they did before the crisis.

 

Backblaze-cost-per-drive-size.jpg

 

 

 

Last chart, I promise. These are the estimates before the price hikes. Will desktop PCs become completely niche products? Will gaming industry largely abandon PC if price of hardware becomes unreachable, and this also influences sales of software? How long is a piece of string? Has Greenback gone forever? Will the person who took my bicycle pump please return it? For the answer to these questions and some that shouldn't be answered, tune in next time, for another exciting adventure of the world's greatest everything, Danger Mouse!

 

GartnerPC-Sales.eWEEK_1.png?alias=article_hero


Edited by Bwaze
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Once they find out that Burst allows to mine with "space", HDD and SSD will skyrocket too, LMAO.

 

I have read threads with people putting all kinds of xTB's in and on their machine for Burst. 300TB is not seldom for such guys.

 

With the BTC & ETH that low, the GPU price should recover at least a little. Any watercard is 1199,-€, heck thats 200 more what I paid.

 

32GB-3600 CL16 is still over 550€, I paid more than 200 less...

 

..and Nvidia just said they wont ramp up production...nice 2018 !

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I too want to increase RAM from 16 to 32, but the prices have gone insanely high. And I have researched that DDR4 are not expected to do down anywhere in near future bcoz ddr4 and being used in cell phones and lots of other electronic equipement also. Hence there is a demand supply gap.

 

On the otherhand, Graphic cards are expensive due to mining. Etherium is still very much proftable. It was even profitable when it was at $300. Right now its hovering around 850. U can do the math.

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There is NEVER a good reason to hold on from buying a newer tech. Better and newer is around the corner.

 

200€ extra for a RAM or GPU? Not a real problem in the first rate countries.

 

The question is that for what purpose the tech is coming.

If it is going to help you in your work, it is likely worth it.

If it is going to be for entertainment, it is question how important your enjoyment in your time is?

 

But what I do know about computers and DCS, is that there is NEVER a good time to buy a new computer for DCS, because DCS is such a resource hog, that there is never enough resources to run it. Seriously, it is a game that has so crazy performance hit to any hardware you can have, that it is not even joke.

 

There are games that are throwing far more graphical elements, textures, shaders etc on screen and yet run all far faster, that it is just crazy in comparison.

 

DCS is like you are paying 80% of the hardware to get it run just a 20% better. So it is more like "waste of money" overall. But it is many of ours hobby, passion etc, so we do what we can do...

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There is NEVER a good reason to hold on from buying a newer tech.

 

,,,

 

DCS is like you are paying 80% of the hardware to get it run just a 20% better. So it is more like "waste of money" overall. But it is many of ours hobby, passion etc, so we do what we can do...

 

I don't think DCS is unique in this regard. I remember long struggles in Flight Simulator X for better framerates... Games that are CPU limited are much harder to improve than GPU limited ones - unfortunately CPU progress has slowed in the past couple of years to single digit improvements from generation to generation... And making games (and most other software) use more than a couple of cores seems to be difficult.

 

And I disagree. There is a bad time to buy a new tech. When that tech is about to be replaced, yet it still sells for premium for some reason.

 

Is there a chance nVidia can satisfy both mining community and gamers in the near future, let's say in April or May, when the Pascal replacement should arrive? I don't think it is, unless something drastic happens in cryptocurrency market (world-wide taxation, bans on mining)... I mean, miners are paying their cards with the cards themselves. If the price of card lowers, they will just buy more cards, and I don't think anti-miner limits are a serious attempt...

 

It's such a bizarre situation.

 

In November, the power consumed by the entire bitcoin network was estimated to be higher than that of the Republic of Ireland. Since then, its demands have only grown. It’s now on pace to use just over 42TWh of electricity in a year, placing it ahead of New Zealand and Hungary and just behind Peru, according to estimates.

 

And for what? Just to produce tokens that say "coin"? :doh:

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I suppose there are many in the DCS World who are struggling with your same issue. My specs are in my sig, and as anyone can see, I am long overdue for an upgrade to keep pace with the improvements in DCS. But like you cost is a major factor for someone on a fixed income (retired). Not to mention the lack of availability even if you swallowed hard and accepted the inflated prices. I, like I suspect most in this situation are, are simply waiting to see how the hardware manufacturers are going to respond to this issue. One of the things that is keeping them at their current state is, in my opinion, "miners" buy several cards at a purchase where most sim players buy only one or two. If you were in one of those businesses that could not keep up with the demand, what would you do? It is interesting that we simmers are at the mercy of some people who are currently driving that demand via mining cryptocurrency when it was not that long ago WE were the ones the manufacturers were focused on. Like you and I suspect many others, this is going to really test our patience.

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You were wise to hold off buying newer PC and graphics card tech for use with DCS 2.5 and future upgrades of all computer games. Why buy old technology? Your continued patience will pay off through Nvidia's leak:

 

Information is from an online source 2 days ago/February 12th, 2018:

 

Nvidia GeForce GTX 20 series tipped to debut in April.

 

"The leak comes via German site 3D Center, which claims that the new generation of GPUs will be based on its upcoming architecture, codenamed 'Ampere'.

 

The new lineup is said to arrive in April, so it could be that the firm will unveil the new-generation of GPUs at its GTC technology conference in San Jose, due to take place at the end of March.

If true, it will be almost exactly two years after Nvidia unveiled the GeForce GTX 1070 and GTX 1080 in Austin, Texas.

The German news site claims that TSMC has stopped production of GP102, the GPU that powers the GeForce GTX 1080 Ti, meaning that current-generation GTX 1080 Ti and Titan X graphics cards would stop being produced throughout the rest of this year to make way for the unravelling of the GTX 20 series.

If the reports are confirmed come March or April, the GTX 20 series is likely to use Nvidia's new and improved VRAM technology, which uses a smaller bus than the GTX 1080 Ti thanks to the arrival of the firm's GDDR6 technology.

The upcoming Ampere architecture is rumoured to be based on Samsung's 14nm process technology after Nvidia signed an agreement with the Korean tech giant that would see the company making its new chips.

The last big GPU Nvidia unveiled was for desktop PCs and workstations that, founder and CEO Jensen Huang claimed, was "the world's most powerful GPU for the PC".

 

Named the Titan V, the GPU is intended not for gaming (yea, right), though, but for machine learning applications. Announced at the annual NIPS conference in December 2017, the Titan V was touted as "the world's most powerful GPU for the PC" and is designed to excel at computational processing for scientific simulation.

 

With 21.1 billion transistors delivering 110 teraflops of raw horsepower, it is also said to be nine times as powerful as its predecessor, and way more energy efficient thanks to being based on Nvidia's Volta GPU architecture." (end of news article)

 

FYI. Many articles online about Nvidia coming out with these new graphic cards. ED will probably try to build/upgrade to this new future...

 

 

end. Not a troll, just wanted to share this brand new online news. I still think this GTX 1080ti would be great to have....if you could get it.


Edited by DonutDudeDD
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Yeah, if you missed that 2016-2017 graphics card upgrade window after the new architecture was introduced, but before the Bitcoin miners, you're pretty ****ed! Best buy right now is a budget build, but that wouldn't offer any improvement over what you already have and certainly not in 4K. You really don't need a CPU upgrade anyway.

Read my DCS 2.5 Optimisation Guide (version 2.5.4):

https://forums.eagle.ru/showthread.php?p=3828073

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Yeah this whole BitCoin Mining thing is destroying the hobby for many people. Hopefully its a short term thing.

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  • 2 weeks later...

NVIDIA Allegedly States That GPU Prices Will Continue To Go Up And Any Sort of Normalization Isn’t Expected Until After Q3 2018

 

 

 

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-gpu-market-prices-sky-rocket-till-q3-2018/

 

And mining isn't even mentioned... Are game developers even worried about this? According to Steam Hardware Survey most of the people use low end graphic cards to game on PC:

 

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1060 16.59%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 960 14.52%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 750 Ti 14.47%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1050 Ti 12.72%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 950 6.32%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1050 4.89%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 750 1.88%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 970 1.84%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1070 1.72%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 760 1.53%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 660 1.11%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 960M 1.01%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 0.94%

NVIDIA GeForce GT 730 0.78%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 650 0.72%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 950M 0.54%

AMD Radeon R7 Graphics 0.52%

NVIDIA GeForce 940M 0.51%

NVIDIA GeForce GT 720M 0.55%

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 Ti 0.42%

 

The graphic card segment that interests me (GeForce 1070, 1080, 1080 Ti) represents only about 3% of graphic cards in gaming computers?

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The graphic card segment that interests me (GeForce 1070, 1080, 1080 Ti) represents only about 3% of graphic cards in gaming computers?

 

Yes, most gamers use pre-built desktops or laptops. These haven't been affected much by the recent price increases.

 

It might be a bad time to build your own PC, but gaming in general isn't threatened yet. A very serious event such as war in Korea would be needed for that.

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The graphic card segment that interests me (GeForce 1070, 1080, 1080 Ti) represents only about 3% of graphic cards in gaming computers?

 

Wow, that's interesting!

 

When looking through hardware related threads and questions around here, it seems like 90+% of DCS players won't fly with anything worse than a pimped 1070, but I always felt that must be due to the small sample size, seeing as in some places you could get a used car for that money.

 

3% sounds a lot more plausible. Then again, the 3% are probably pretty hardcore gamers, or people who make enough money so they can simply afford such a card (and the PC to go with it) without any problems.

 

I got a new card in December, and prices for that thing climbed by another 40% or so since then. I thought I paid way too much money, and now it's even more expensive than that? This is nuts!

 

And now the prospect that it won't improve until another 6, 7 months from now? I sure think game developers must take this into account!

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As a small indie dev, it is quite worrying to me. In Canada, a 1080 Ti costs over $1600 due to this bitcoin nonsense, making it incredibly difficult for most gamers to keep their systems up to spec, and making VR content is not worth the effort at all due to monetary investment needed in order to properly test the software, so as much as I love VR, bitcoin mining could potentially entirely destroy it. After all, no one's going to buy a brand new headset which needs a GPU they can't afford.

 

Since only a small percent of players can take advantage of the best GPU's, it's not worth developing content that does either. AAA developers obviously have much better resource to make games more scaleable however, but lets face it - no one wants to play the latest and greatest on "Lowest" settings. People want better GPU's but simply can't afford them, and with the global GPU shortage, can't even buy them because the stock is gone.

 

In DCS, the standard is of course much higher, but you're also only looking at the small sample of people that actually post on the forums. The steam average is far lower, and being a free to play title, there are countless numbers of people that may try the game and quit shortly thereafter due to its particularly high system demands. So really, the hardware sample here is incredibly warped towards the high end, whether the players are active on the forums or not.


Edited by KCferrari
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Turn the knife around guys ! There is no need to remain a victim.

 

I bought my card for 939,-€ in December 2017, started mining Christmas Eve and till today I have made enough, incl. electricity, that the price I paid minus the profit makes it reasonable.

 

Yes, it sounds a bit strange at first but think about it. You only need to mine until you made up for the higher price, say 200-300€, that is 2-3 month, maximum.

 

When you have no idea what this is about, in short: You will get paid, likely by a pool, for crunching numbers. You get usually paid in Bitcoin which you can directly deposit on your Bank or spend them where BTC is accepted. You will not really invest in BTC or such, that is a different thing. You "rent out" your rig to process banking/transactions and get paid for that, simple as that. That is what it is all about.

 

It has a reason why GPU's sell like mad.

 

..and yes, sure, my game rig runs 24/7 since that day, mining both on CPU & GPU. It's fun too, finally that stupid thing earns money instead of only eating it all up. It shall pay for itself.

 

Blame me for doing it, but I bought my card for DCS, mining I only do out of curiosity and fun, a minor part is the money thing, it just is the dot on the "i" that makes it shine.

 

I have done many kilowatts of DC with prime95 ( not the stresstest but real ), done MilkyWay, Seti, Molecular, all sorts of stuff to contribute. Now it's time to venture into mining.

If you do not do it yourself, work with it, it is so much harder to understand what it is all about. Honestly, I learned a lot since Xmas in that area. I defo know what SSD's are good for if not DCS, Ethereum Wallets , haha, damn it ! :huh:


Edited by BitMaster

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Stop whinning about mining. Everybody can do that, so it would be better to buy a "miner", wait a while and earn for new more expensive GFX card ^^

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Mining has totally ruined it for the likes of me, no way I can afford to upgrade to something faster while the greed of the miners has it's hold.

 

There are a lot of serious gamers wishing they could get the latest and greatest, but it is not an easy feat... I hate it for those that want but can not get.

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Its very easy for some to mine but not all of us have a connection that is sufficient to make it work economically.

 

 

For those of us in that position, mining is nothing short of destructive.

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Its very easy for some to mine but not all of us have a connection that is sufficient to make it work economically.

 

 

For those of us in that position, mining is nothing short of destructive.

 

Why is mining destructive ? because of the few kW I use ?

 

Gaming is absolutely not essential as well for mankind to strive forward, nonetheless we exploit

ressources and accept slavery for the ingredients of our Computers and our out-of-control desire to be entertained, at all costs.

 

Take a sharp look around you, how many destructive things do you see ?

 

It's hard to see one that is not, that is the truth in our world.

 

Mining, gaming, using SLI, more cores than you need, heating on 5 cause we like it warm today, an extra mile around the block because I love this V8 sound... etc etc..

 

Which one do we blame today ? The V8, the SLI guy, the miner or GrandMa who likes 30°C in her room and not the greenhouse friendly 21°C.

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and btw, DRAM shortage is another factor why GPU cards are that high in price and wont drop. It's not only those miners

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Why is mining destructive ? because of the few kW I use ?

 

I didn't bring that up, but my take on it is: if you use your own PC for mining while you don't play, I still think it's a bad use of energy, but hey, you had me at central heating and the fact that I like it warm. ;)

 

What I consider destructive is the people, or companies, that actually buy cards for the sole purpose of mining, stuffing hundreds and thousands of these things into data centers in places where electricity is cheap, in order to make money. I think that's one way of showing just how stupid capitalism can make people. There's exactly no gain for society (which is actually the opposite of what capitalism was supposed to be about) while the consumption of limited resources keeps skyrocketing. This only benefits those who take mining to never-ending extremes, no matter the cost that all of us have to pay in terms of pollution and use of fossil fuels.

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I didn't bring that up, but my take on it is: if you use your own PC for mining while you don't play, I still think it's a bad use of energy, but hey, you had me at central heating and the fact that I like it warm. ;)

 

What I consider destructive is the people, or companies, that actually buy cards for the sole purpose of mining, stuffing hundreds and thousands of these things into data centers in places where electricity is cheap, in order to make money. I think that's one way of showing just how stupid capitalism can make people. There's exactly no gain for society (which is actually the opposite of what capitalism was supposed to be about) while the consumption of limited resources keeps skyrocketing. This only benefits those who take mining to never-ending extremes, no matter the cost that all of us have to pay in terms of pollution and use of fossil fuels.

 

Yeah, or the guy who said the does nothing of that but hikes the mountains and wilderness.

That he fills up his car 3 x to get there and back is totally forgotten in his equation. :doh:

 

Sure, those mining farms are a bad thing in many views but one that is allowed, we all wanted the freedom and this is part of it, if we like it or not. Society has to find a way to counter that. It will not stay at a status quo, it will evolve, just where to ?

 

I for one am happy that I can get some money back.

 

For anything else the market will find a solution. Bitmain skyrocketed last year, others will follow and ASIC may become standard and affordable for all miners. That would render GPU's useless. Rather buy a ASIC PCIe card and plug that in, or a USB dongle..etc... It just needs the ASIC Chip. Despite my guess earlier, I think that may likely happen.

 

Meanwhile, download NiceHash, turn down the heating from 5 to 3 and switch on NiceHash Miner to add the extra heat, one or the other way we are doomed Yurgon :pilotfly:

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[...] and switch on NiceHash Miner to add the extra heat, one or the other way we are doomed Yurgon :pilotfly:

 

What was that joke from Dieter Nuhr?

 

"If 30°C is the effect of global warming... how often do I need to drive in circles to make sure it stays that way?" :D

 

Other than that, no thanks, I don't need my PC running all day and all night. While I'm not good at it, I do believe saving energy is the way to go until such a time that we're able to harness a never ending source of energy. ;)

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