Boogieman Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 (edited) I'm not 100% confident that Mr Musk really knows what he's talking about on this one. The reality is that a modern day fighter is an inherently expensive weapons system. By the time you put together a high performance airframe with modern propulsion, signature reduction measures, sensors, countermeasures and data sharing capability you have an aircraft that is worth tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars before a pilot ever gets near it. There seems to be this myth that dispensing with the pilot will somehow make combat aircraft cheap and expendable... The real question to me is whether we trust AI to control such an expensive asset en masse, and how much more effective an AI in the "driver's seat" would be (if at all). Personally I'm not sure the technology has matured to the point that we would trust it with such valuable hardware (and the destructive capability it provides) or that there would be a significant benefit in doing so. Edited March 3, 2020 by Boogieman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mars Exulte Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I think it's funny people keep talking about g limits like that's allthat matters. You cannot ''pull gs as much and long as you want''. That's a ridiculous thing to say. Have you forgotten about T/W, aerodynamics, and structural limitations? Those things don't disappear juat because it's a robot, it's not magic ffs. A jet isn't going to pull 20-30gs without snapping the wings off or breaking the spine, and isn't going to do it for more than a few seconds even if it could without losing all its energy, at which point it's a sitting duck again like anything. A MISSILE can do that because it's a tube with tiny low drag control fins taking a very short one way trip, and we all know how that's how you defeat a missile, anyway! Gs won't outrun a prox fused missile anyway, you can't ''out turn'' a large ball of shrapnel. I just see a lot of ill informed people imagining invincible terminators and cheesy scifi nonsense, totally disregarding like... physics and stuff @@ Де вороги, знайдуться козаки їх перемогти. 5800x3d * 3090 * 64gb * Reverb G2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Yeah... that's the problem with using jets that need to serve a ~30 year service life - you can't just abuse them with insane amounts of G because there's no pilot onboard - you actually have to take care of the airframe too. Even if you could develop an AI controlled aircraft capable of pulling sustained double digit G loads at will, I'm not sure how much of an advantage that would actually be in the grand scheme of things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozon Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Most of you are thinking about replacing the pilot with AI. This is not how such a vehicle will look like. It will be designed from the ground up without a pilot, and to operate in a whole eco system specifically designed to support such vehicles. This is NOT an F-35 with AI. A 100 million $ machine without a pilot is sheer stupidity. Once the human life is out of the equation the whole paradigm changes. The standards of safety go way way down. You can afford to lose some vehicles as part of the mission design. Instead of 1 100 million $ jet, you send 5 smaller jets that carry 1/5 of the ordnance. They have a much higher chance to complete the mission and overall survivability increase due to saturation of the defenses. A smaller plane carrying 1/5 of the payload and specifically designed for it can reach significantly higher structural limitations. This is how you produce vehicles capable of un precedented maneuvers, not by keeping the same airframe and replacing the pilot with something that does not faint. “Mosquitoes fly, but flies don’t Mosquito” :pilotfly: - Geoffrey de Havilland. ... well, he could have said it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozon Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 There is no problem to produce an airframe than can pull 20G. Current airframes cannot because there was no need for it. Had they been designed to withstand 20G but then limited to 9G because of the pilot, that would have been over-engineering, which is not a good thing. In any case, the need to be able to pull 20 G is vanishing. Drones will not dogfight using fixed cannons, and will not rely on maneuvers to dodge missiles - that trick gets less and less effective as missiles improve. Even on top of that, using drones to shoot down other drones is generally inefficient. “Mosquitoes fly, but flies don’t Mosquito” :pilotfly: - Geoffrey de Havilland. ... well, he could have said it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birko Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I think the future for autonomy in air forces at least in the near future is in non-combat roles. Tankers, AEW, EW warfare and deception etc. There's not much point making stealthy jets like Raptors or F-35s if they're gonna light the sky with radar anyway, so I can see autonomous drones flying with stealth aircraft to be their eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmirkingGerbil Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Has anyone been following the "loyal wingman" programs? They couple a human manned fighter, or bomber, with a flight of Drones that can perform screening, act as a missile truck, or engage threats. A neat combination of Human/AI that can work together, complimenting each other. Pointy end hurt! Fire burn!! JTF-191 25th Draggins - Hawg Main. Black Shark 2, A10C, A10CII, F-16, F/A-18, F-86, Mig-15, Mig-19, Mig-21, P-51, F-15, Su-27, Su-33, Mig-29, FW-190 Dora, Anton, BF 109, Mossie, Normandy, Caucasus, NTTR, Persian Gulf, Channel, Syria, Marianas, WWII Assets, CA. (WWII backer picked aircraft ME-262, P-47D). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AeriaGloria Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Yeah, I don’t know if US has loyal wingmen they don’t talk about currently or Russia is actually closer to deployment with their S-70 Okhotnik. Kindve weird how newcomer Kratos is the new darling of the Pentagon. Always surprised how big the S-70 actually is Black Shark Den Squadron Member: We are open to new recruits, click here to check us out or apply to join! https://blacksharkden.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 (edited) Most of you are thinking about replacing the pilot with AI. This is not how such a vehicle will look like. It will be designed from the ground up without a pilot, and to operate in a whole eco system specifically designed to support such vehicles. This is NOT an F-35 with AI. A 100 million $ machine without a pilot is sheer stupidity. Once the human life is out of the equation the whole paradigm changes. The standards of safety go way way down. You can afford to lose some vehicles as part of the mission design. Instead of 1 100 million $ jet, you send 5 smaller jets that carry 1/5 of the ordnance. Granted, but there are still certain requirements that a larger number of more expendable UCAVs won't meet. There comes a point where you still need a platform that can carry a certain minimum payload (eg. multiple 2000lb class weapons) to a certain range, sensors powerful enough to detect/track other VLO aircraft and cue AAMs at useful ranges, ESM gear capable of pinpointing modern air defences, a quality targeting pod to cue air to ground weapons, secure datalinks that can contribute meaningful information to the wider network etc etc. I strongly suspect these things add up to a platform that is neither cheap nor expendable. I think this is why we are seeing the loyal wingman concept play out - the high value combat aircraft with all the expensive gear is manned and acts as a mothership to the cheaper more expendable UAS. Edited March 4, 2020 by Boogieman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I’m curious on what some here may think of this story about Elon Musk. https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/the-fighter-jet-era-has-passed-elon-musk/137017.article The whole thing sounds like we are heading towards Skynet. What do you see has the pros of an autonomous fighter drone? What do you see as the cons? Where does all of this AI leads to in the next 20 years? What is the military background of Elon Musk ? Probably not much. So his point of view is pointless, he is advocating for his own business... Mirage fanatic ! I7-7700K/ MSI RTX3080/ RAM 64 Go/ SSD / TM Hornet stick-Virpil WarBRD + Virpil CM3 Throttle + MFG Crosswind + Reverb G2. Flickr gallery: https://www.flickr.com/gp/71068385@N02/728Hbi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StandingCow Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Mover did a video on this: 5900X - 32 GB 3600 RAM - 1080TI My Twitch Channel ~Moo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Worrazen Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) It's just Musky proposing stupid things, again. Much like his hyperloop. This is also absolutely not considering the impact of politics on acquisitions. This isn't the first time this has been said and I doubt it will be the last time. When piloted combat aircraft are a thing of the past, it will be day to be lauded or a day of immense remorse. Hyperloop wasn't his idea anyway, a vacuum tube train system is a no brainer, I watched documentaries about it on Discovery Channel in something like 2004. Elon Musk is a total fraud anyway, stealing the Tesla name, saying one thing and doing another, but mostly a front man for a variety of very rich interests and future-obsessed stockholders who actually run the whole show, those are incredibly obsessed with AI controlling everything, space and going to mars. Then go to mars and leave us alone. The fanboys of Elon Musk don't understand it's all private, it has no meaning for humanity, everything they do will be for their benefit, if they capture comets for mineral mining, it's their property, if they land on mars, it becomes their private property. https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-gets-approval-continue-cutting-down-thousands-trees-build-its-german-gigafactory https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/ntsb-blames-tesla-and-us-regulators-fatal-2018-autopilot-crash https://www.rt.com/business/482188-elon-musk-cobalt-crisis/ Skip to 8:27 Edited March 4, 2020 by Worrazen Modules: A-10C I/II, F/A-18C, Mig-21Bis, M-2000C, AJS-37, Spitfire LF Mk. IX, P-47, FC3, SC, CA, WW2AP, CE2. Terrains: NTTR, Normandy, Persian Gulf, Syria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmirkingGerbil Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Yeah, I don’t know if US has loyal wingmen they don’t talk about currently or Russia is actually closer to deployment with their S-70 Okhotnik. Kindve weird how newcomer Kratos is the new darling of the Pentagon. Always surprised how big the S-70 actually is The Okhotnik has some signature return issues, but is a big bird and impressive to say the least. Agreed on Kratos they came up pretty often recently. I will try to find it, but the USAF did a "loyal wingman" type of test with an F-35 and a drone, not sure if a Kratos or not. Australia has really been putting some time into the Loyal Wingman program, and I think it is in partnership with Boeing if I remember correctly. Pointy end hurt! Fire burn!! JTF-191 25th Draggins - Hawg Main. Black Shark 2, A10C, A10CII, F-16, F/A-18, F-86, Mig-15, Mig-19, Mig-21, P-51, F-15, Su-27, Su-33, Mig-29, FW-190 Dora, Anton, BF 109, Mossie, Normandy, Caucasus, NTTR, Persian Gulf, Channel, Syria, Marianas, WWII Assets, CA. (WWII backer picked aircraft ME-262, P-47D). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AeriaGloria Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 It’s just the whole way the UAV/loyal wingman thing died down in obscurity here in the US about 15 years ago with the X-47 UCAV program being the last time we were this close. Makes you wonder how far operational wingman drones are in black projects Black Shark Den Squadron Member: We are open to new recruits, click here to check us out or apply to join! https://blacksharkden.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackLightning Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 First of all, history teaches us that usually when we try guessing like this about the future, time proves us wrong. Trying to forecast the future can still be interesting, I think. When contemplating the possibility that unmanned aircrafts will replace the manned ones, I wonder what are the possibilities that they will end up attacking the nations who deployed them. I’m not talking about machine learning letting the machines develop greed and emotional self awareness eventually making them rebelling against humans; I’m talking about the possibility that they could be controlled remotely by the enemy. Unless you completely rely on AI and not put any radio receiver or something similar in them, there must be something that you can use to control them. What if the enemy takes control? Even if they manage to make them land in their territory and take control of them later by tinkering with them on the ground, it would still be quite a problem. Planes: FC3, Spitfire, Harrier, F-14, F-18, MiG-21, Edge 540 - Helicopters: UH-1H, Mi-8 - Environments: Persian Gulf, Supercarrier PC specs in the spoiler I run DCS 2.7 using: MasterWatt 550 semi-fanless and semi-modular, core i7-3770 (4 cores @ 3.8 GHz) with 8 GB DDR3, GTX1050 Ti (768 cores @ 1.8 GHz) with 4 GB GDDR5, 5.1 sound card, 240 GB SSD, Windows 8.1, T.16000M FCS Flight Pack (i. e. stick+throttle+rudder pedals), opentrack head trakcer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AeriaGloria Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 RQ-170 anyone ehh Black Shark Den Squadron Member: We are open to new recruits, click here to check us out or apply to join! https://blacksharkden.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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