Thanks for the suggestion, draconus. I took a look at the log file and searched for anything relating to the F-15 and found an error line referencing the F-15E-CPT.dll file being blocked by bitlocker encryption. The drive that DCS is installed on is not encrypted, but another division on the same NVME was (nothing DCS related in there). I disabled the encryption of that other drive, and then booted the game and was able to load in fine - so it appears that it's fixed.
TLDR solution: Having bitlocker encryption enabled on the same physical drive as your DCS install will block loading of the required .dll file.
Appreciate your help!