Hi all,
I've encountered exactly the same problems. I actually went to the trouble of spending many hours analyzing the issue, isolating variables, generating track files. I found a reproducible issue, and ruled out many others. I tried to be as helpful as possible, explaining my methodology and offering to add track files. See thread here from January:
@Lord Vader replied and stated it was raised internally for analysis. But the thread was locked and I've seen nothing else on this issue since.
So we figured out the problem. Since DCS MT is a different .EXE, Windows Defender was blocking it, even though all Port Forwarding was correct. Disabling Windows Defender allowed us to connect. We're good to go.