Exceptional anti-missile capabilities of the Patriot missile system

[isoul]

Recently I created a mission where I pitted my favorite Su-25T against a MIM-104 Patriot SAM system.

 

What made me wonder was Patriot's exceptional anti-missile capabilities. The Patriot system I was after had 4 launchers and one radar and managed to shoot down many of my ARM missiles(Kh-29MP and Kh-25MP).

 

I wonder if Patriot missile system is able to defeat such small and fast missiles. From what I 've found :

 

1) Kh-29 weights approx 700kg and, in general, reaches speeds no less that 900km/h

2) Kh-25MP weight no more than 400kg and travels at speeds approx. 1000-1600 km/h

 

While I didn't found the maximum speed of a SCUD missile, its weight (varies from ~4.5-6.5 tons depending on the variant) , dimensions and range are such that I can't believe its faster than Kh-25/29 missiles.

 

So... if the Patriot's success against SCUD missile, which is quite a large target, was revealed to be quite low (someone even claims to be 10%) how come the success rate against ARM missile is so good. Is this right???

 

For the history :

I did managed to destroy the Patriot's radar several times with Kh-25MP missiles. No kill was scored with Kh-29MP were the Patriot seems to defeat them easily. All launches were near max range while I was at low altitude. I usually launched missiles in pairs. I suspect that the success rate of the Kh-25MP is because this missile is fired from closer distance so that Patriot doesn't have enough time to launch enough missiles to have a succeful result.

Edited June 9, 2010 by isoul

[topol-m]

Patriot was not designed to counter weapons like Kh-29, KH-25... I don`t think it should be able at all to shoot down such small targets.

[Scudslaker]

i except same, those missiles should be a little to small for the patriot system, but maybe i m wrong and someone can clarify this issue form ED site, or maybe an patriot veteran in here?

 

my father was on a AAA site in his military time, but they had not been able to see small missiles!)

[winz]

tbh, imho all radar SAMs system are showing somewhat exceptional anti-missile capabilities.

[EtherealN]

Note on Patriot effectiveness against SCUD: from what I recall it was very effective at hitting the missiles and causing catastrophic damage. Propblem is that this does not cause a ballistic missile to change course - debris and shockwave might divert it slightly by there are still chances that a warhead will still be delivered roughly where it was aimed.

 

(That's the point of THAAD - it was made specifically for ballistic missiles and it's kinetic kill is meant to guarantee a kill on the warhead.)

 

Actively guiding missiles is something else. You really only need to give a bit of shrapnel damage to a fin or control surface and it'll fail to track. This is obviously hard to model exactly so it is approximated through rendering a big boom instead of a missile spiralling over to the next field.

 

Though I've never worked with a real Patriot system or Patriot operator, but I'm not sure they'd have been allowed to give me an honest answer anyhow if I were to ask. :P

[topol-m]

KH-29 and KH-25 are much smaller than ballistic or tactical ballistic missiles like Scud. I don`t think I`ve seen any info at all suggesting Patriot is used to shoot down missiles like that. Patriot is not TOR or Pantsir.

Edited June 9, 2010 by topol-m

[GGTharos]

The KH-29 and KH-25 are big enough to be targets for the Patriot. Patriot crews in fact train to shoot down ARMs, though exactly which ones is classified and blanked out of the documents that were found pertaining to the subject.

 

Other information indicates that those missiles would probably be down to about 450kt speed by the time they were intercepted, as well as that there are additional (soft kill) techniques to deal with them.

 

Further, one big deal with the Kh-25MP is that the carrier would likely be attack by PATRIOT before it could employ its weapons.

 

Currently the PATRIOT capability makes up for the fact that it has other ways of trashing your ARMs, and in fact attacking it via single plane with ARMs should have a fairly low chance of destroying it; things change in a more complex situation ... but if you are expecting single-shot ARM kills, your expectations are unrealistic. :)

[topol-m]

In the game is the S-300 modeled with such capabilities as well?

[GGTharos]

I believe it is.

[topol-m]

I have not made extensive tests, but not every single SAM in the game can shoot down missiles right? It would be wrong if they can.

[GGTharos]

They can, but their capabilities are not equal. This is just a limitation of the ground AI; either then can all engage certain targets, or none, IIRC.

 

You can see HAWK will engage ARMs, but it might at best shoot one of a group down. Buk will fare a little better since each TELAR can engage independently.

[topol-m]

But are these older radars (Hawk etc.) even capable of detecting/locking/guiding a missile at another kh-25 sized missile?

[EtherealN]

Not all of them can, as far as my experience goes.

 

In FC2 most of my DEAD (it's not really SEAD... :P ) was done with T-Frog vs S-300, and I developed a salvo tactic for that platform. My method was to have a combination of missiles, and launch the lower-energy ones first to let the target site work on the low-PK weapons while my heavier-warhead higher-PK weapons run in behind them.

[topol-m]

^^^ Clever :)

Off topic: in tacview recently I saw R-27ER launched at a fighter suddenly trying to intercept and hit an Amraam :huh:

[isoul]

I have flown several SEAD against HAWK batteries. I have fired several ARMs against them and I can't remember HAWK to engage my ARMs. Usually 1 ARM missile is enough to take out the tracking radar and cast the battery useless.

 

The above would seem unrealistic to me...

 

For the Patriot now...

 

As topol-m said before, I believe that Kh-25MP is a rather small target for every anti-aircraft missile system. But lets ignore this since its more or less our assumption.

 

As first Gulf War ended studies revealed that MIM-104 Patriot missile system wasn't so successful against the old SCUD tactical missile as US and Raytheon claimed. At best 1 every 3 or even 4 missiles launched hit their SCUD targets. There are even studies that claim that confirmed hits(not kills) are even less.(I believe that we all understand now that a SCUD is an easier target to hit than an ARM)

 

So, if Patriots weren't so successful against the old and large SCUDs why they have so good hit rate against such missiles?

 

PS : Its not impossible to defeat Patriot missile system as long as you know from where and how to approach it(use terrain cover) and launch 2-3 missiles.

Edited June 9, 2010 by isoul

[GGTharos]

As topol-m said before, I believe that Kh-25MP is a rather small target for every anti-aircraft missile system. But lets ignore this since its more or less our assumption.

 

Then you have't seen SLAMRAAM hitting a similarly sized missile in a severe dive (And thus high clutter situation) directly (not proximity). The truth is out there ;)

The PATRIOT has a much more powerful radar.

 

As first Gulf War ended studies revealed that MIM-104 Patriot missile system wasn't so successful against the old SCUD tactical missile as US and Raytheon claimed. At best 1 every 3 or even 4 missiles launched hit their SCUD targets. There are even studies that claim that confirmed hits(not kills) are even less.(I believe that we all understand now that a SCUD is an easier target to hit than an ARM)

The MIM-104 was not designed to intercept MRBMs or even SRBMs, and, no, in fact, it is NOT an easier target to hit than an ARM - the closure is far larger. I'm not sure where you got that understanding from. The hit rate on the missiles was good, but the closure together with the angle of intercept conspired to make those hits in-effective (in other words, the missiles detonated, bu there was no physical contact).

But the geometry of intercepting an ARM, AND the closure are VERY different and typically well within the limitations of PAC-2 pre-gulf-war-2.

 

 

So, if Patriots weren't so successful against the old and large SCUDs why they have so good hit rate against such missiles?

Because your comparison is incorrect. Patriot is in fact tested against itself - often a PAC-2 missile is used as a target for a Patriot battery, and that is a much harder target than an ARM which is traveling at half that speed, maximum.

 

PS : Its not impossible to defeat Patriot missile system as long as you know from where and how to approach it(use terrain cover) and launch 2-3 missiles.

On the other hand, it should be nearly darned impossible. ;)

These systems will not trade themselves for anything less than 10 simultaneous shots at your air power - that is the reason for their existance. Your ability to attack with a single aircraft comes from the SAMs inability to defend itself using both hard and soft-kill techniques as well as a lack of any semblance of an IADS (what will you do with all that terrain when it throws MANPADS at you?)

Edited June 9, 2010 by GGTharos

[Brit_Radar_Dude]

While I didn't found the maximum speed of a SCUD missile, its weight (varies from ~4.5-6.5 tons depending on the variant) , dimensions and range are such that I can't believe its faster than Kh-25/29 missiles.

 

So... if the Patriot's success against SCUD missile, which is quite a large target, was revealed to be quite low (someone even claims to be 10%) how come the success rate against ARM missile is so good. Is this right???

 

You are missing the point about the difference between SCUD and ARM's. The SCUD is a ballistic missile. It comes down on you from space pretty much directly above you at a massive speed aided by gravity. If you dont blow it into pieces it will still fall on you. A regular missile isnt like that.

 

In order to take on SCUD's at all, they had to rewrite some of the Patriot's software to enable it to have any chance of engaging such superfast moving targets. As EtherealN pointed out when he mentioned THAAD, a SCUD presents different challenges to a normal missile.

 

 

I believe that we all understand now that a SCUD is an easier target to hit than an ARM

No not easier at all, different.

[RIPTIDE]

Note on Patriot effectiveness against SCUD: from what I recall it was very effective at hitting the missiles and causing catastrophic damage.

From what I recall, they were quite bad at hitting the scuds, and the very few scuds that were hit, continued on regardless and detonated.

[GGTharos]

They were quite good at hitting their targets, but not at destroying them. In addition a salvo launched at a SCUD could hit pieces of it that broke off from the first missile strike or fly through the cloud of debris which would effectively act as chaff - therefore the important part - the warhead - would not be re-attacked.

 

From what I recall, they were quite bad at hitting the scuds, and the very few scuds that were hit, continued on regardless and detonated.

[isoul]

OK! So the trajectory of the SCUD(being a ballistic missile) and its speed is such that it makes it a harder target to hit than an ARM.

 

So we end up that Patriot can defend an area almost from all usual aerial attacks.

 

* Actually the software patch is said to correct a clock slide or lag that occured after long operating hours and caused a failure to intercept a SCUD which ended hitting some US facility in Dhahran.

[GGTharos]

The speed is the worst part, actually - it's all about closure. If the closure is too great, you have guidance (steering) issues as well as fuze (will typically detonate too late) issues.

 

The patch you mentioned caused a detection failure; but there hhave been actual improvements to the missiles themselves, both in terms of guidance modes and trajectories as well as fuzing capabilities.

 

In GF2, PAC2 GEM+/PAC-3 intercepted 8 of 9 SCUDs successfuly, destroying them before they reached their targets ... I don't remember the reason for the missed target, though IIRC either it itself missed or was deflected.

[RIPTIDE]

Not all of them can, as far as my experience goes.

 

In FC2 most of my DEAD (it's not really SEAD... :P ) was done with T-Frog vs S-300, and I developed a salvo tactic for that platform. My method was to have a combination of missiles, and launch the lower-energy ones first to let the target site work on the low-PK weapons while my heavier-warhead higher-PK weapons run in behind them.

Yep. That's what i do, and have done. I have found in FC 2.0 that the Sams are very capable machines now.

 

Another thing I've noticed with the BYK/BUK system, for example, is that in FC1.0 if you took out the Search Radar, the whole complex was dead. Now, you can take out the SR, drive along happily and what appears to be Tracking radars within the Launch platforms, lock up and launch in a rapid sequence of events. Nasty business indeed. :joystick:

[RIPTIDE]

 

In GF2, PAC2 GEM+/PAC-3 intercepted 8 of 9 SCUDs successfuly, destroying them before they reached their targets ... I don't remember the reason for the missed target, though IIRC either it itself missed or was deflected.

I'd be interested in a source, thanks. Information on Latest gen sams are always hard to come by.

[GGTharos]

FOIA declassified information. It was ridiculously hard to find, and I don't know if I have it handy any more.

 

I'd be interested in a source, thanks. Information on Latest gen sams are always hard to come by.

[Moa]

The British SeaWolf missile was tested and hit 4.5 inch naval shells in flight in the 1980's IIRC. Hitting fast moving targets is not that big a deal, especially if your radar is "looking up" while doing it (good background contrast). The Rolling Airframe Missile has similar capabilities. Mortar shells have also been destroyed in missile tests (eg. Arrow) but it is generally not economical to do so for most battlefield situations.

 

The poor performance of the Patriot in the First Gulf War was traced to clock drift resulting from a limitation in the number of bits used for the wall-clock chips (nb. this is not the system clock frequency chips). This clock was much more accurate than the clock in your PC but still not enough to keep systems synchronized for extended periods without drift. In missile interception, microseconds count. I believe this has now been fixed.

Edited June 9, 2010 by Moa