Russian military and Georgia war Lessons and Implications Study

[Invader ZIM]

Hi Rubin,

 

At the end of the document there's a list of references where they got their information from, it's in the Endnotes section.

 

I don't think anyone, not just us reading this really knows how many forces there were, that's why in the document it's basically a guess as to the amount of personell involved on both sides, so even the professionals may only have educated estimates to go by.

 

 

But I agree that this document is just one version of the information about the war that's out there, and that no one can guess what tomorrow might bring.

 

it is difficult to guess what will happen tomorrow, but want to eat today. Well, the media added pepper.

 

I don't mean to laugh at what you had said above, but it translated into English that is well said, and true. People have to eat and have a job to do, but "Media adds the pepper", I like that. :thumbup:

 

 

The document does mention the 2 billion dollars in aid to Georgia, and it appears that the document is criticizing the U.S. because it did not adequately train for such an event, which basically falls into your idea that you can't predict the future.

 

Thanks for taking the time to read over the document guys, Rubin, I appreciate you taking the time to translate and read through it, and providing your thoughts on it as well.

 

So far the only other document about this war from a more Russian perspective seems to be from a book entitled "The Tanks of August" Which I haven't gotten to yet, but sounds like it's the Russian version of this document based on the following:

 

"The Tanks of August" / M.S. Barabanov, A.V. Lavrov, V.A. Tseluiko; Edited by R.N. Pukhov. Moscow, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2010 - 144 pages.

[Maior]

It depends on what planning means. I don't see why this is ever an issue. I think every country in the world has blueprints on how to invade their neighbours, no matter the political situation.

 

I'd say they had an idea to finish this frozen conflict once and for all at some point, just that Mad Misha Saakashvilli wrong footed them on the exact timing. ;)

 

By planning I meant actual looking for a casus belli. It began with Russia giving away citizenship to the seceding provinces' inhabitants.

Then Georgia procured NATO membership and things began to escalate.

Then Saakashvilli tried to subdue those provinces to be able to be a NATO member (one of the requirements is no territorial disputes iirc).

 

I also believe that the timing was not random at all. I think as more info becomes available, we'll find pushes and nudges here and there from several factions. I also believe Saakashvili is easy to push into doing something rash.

 

As you say, the Russians wanted to solve this Georgian "silly business" once and for all. Not for Georgia alone.

[maturin]

It began with Russia giving away citizenship to the seceding provinces' inhabitants.

It began with Russia being the key broker in ending the first war, partnering with Shevardnadze to create the peacekeeping arrangement. That's why the latitude for handing out passports existed in the first place.

 

Russia wanted to punish/topple Saakashvili in general, but I think the status quo in the breakaways suited them just fine. Recognizing them carried considerable risks, after all.

 

It was Misha who wanted to take South Ossetia by storm, even if he sleepwalked into it, rather than choosing the most opportune time. Meanwhile, Russia was across the border begging him to do it. And the Bush Administration was the criminally inept watchdog slumbering in back.

 

That's what I've already thought, and every new piece of the puzzle that came out in the following years only confirms it.

[RIPTIDE]

I also believe that the timing was not random at all. I think as more info becomes available, we'll find pushes and nudges here and there from several factions. I also believe Saakashvili is easy to push into doing something rash.

 

As you say, the Russians wanted to solve this Georgian "silly business" once and for all. Not for Georgia alone.

Sure. Certainly not random. We know this from wikileaks. The Americans knew that the Russians, in turn knew, that Georgia had being planning a military action.

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/terrible-losses-overnight-cables-track-us-diplomatic-efforts-to-avert-russian-georgian-conflict-a-732294.html

[FanBoy2006.01]

It depends on what planning means. I don't see why this is ever an issue. I think every country in the world has blueprints on how to invade their neighbours, no matter the political situation.;)

 

I can better that one.

 

When I was in the SANDF in 1994, during training at Luatla Army Battle School, I was assigned to monitor the radio in our squadron's command vehicle a couple of times.

 

Well the one time I found the formal briefing for our leaders lying around and with no one around I started reading it. I can't remember much any more but there was a nice order of battle for both sides (Not blue and red but green and orange!) amongst other things.

 

But what freaked me out was that we were training for civil war! :shocking:

 

PS. Way off topic. The unit which I was part of, was divided in a Motorized and a Mechanized squadron amongst other things.

 

I was in the motorized squadron and we drove around in Casspir mine-protected APCs. The Mech. guys had Ratel 20s. The reason that I bring this up is because years ago when the Afghanistan conflict started I saw that soldiers from First World countries driving around in unprotected utility vehicles?!?!? Man even our logistical vehicles were mine-protected.

 

Well at least military commanders have woken up...

Edited March 4, 2013 by FanBoy2006.01

[Maior]

Sure. Certainly not random. We know this from wikileaks. The Americans knew that the Russians, in turn knew, that Georgia had being planning a military action.

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/terrible-losses-overnight-cables-track-us-diplomatic-efforts-to-avert-russian-georgian-conflict-a-732294.html

 

 

Yeah, just goes to show my thought process was spot on :p Didn't know about that wikileaks memo. They're so many however, it's easy to miss I suppose.

 

Still, this drifts into a more political rather then doctrinal and technical discussion which was the purpose.

 

On the more practical side of things, I haven't been able to find the "Tanks of August" book. Did you manage to read something out of it? I'm interested especially since the Russians were very critical of their own performance.

[EvilBivol-1]

 

On the more practical side of things, I haven't been able to find the "Tanks of August" book. Did you manage to read something out of it? I'm interested especially since the Russians were very critical of their own performance.

http://cast.ru/eng/news/?id=387

[Maior]

Thank you very much. There's also a David Glanz foreword to boot. Nice.

[Invader ZIM]

Thanks for that EvilBivol-1, was looking but had trouble finding a free source to post.

[Maior]

well, having read this document, i was surprised at how critical the authors were of post war Russia military (well, even during war). They mention that the reforms enacted will work mid term but that short term, Russia lost intervention capability. Who knows the recent state of Russian affairs? According to the article, the 2010 Georgian army was tougher to beat than war Georgian army. Even though their airforce and navy effectively ceased to exist. I find it impressive since they lost so much equipment. Still, they were being supplied by pre war agreements and continue to be so. And now that NATO membership is off the table, the army is looking for what their home needs are. Another conflict doesn't seem foreseeable in the near future though.

 

EDIT:

Just found an interesting PDF on Russian military doctrine and the current state of affairs.

Ah, and I read that the Russian South MD is getting current gen material really fast. Prioritizing over other MDs, Especially in terms of artillery and IFVs.

 

http://red-stars.org/doctrine.pdf

Edited March 7, 2013 by Maior

[Invader ZIM]

I haven't had the chance to get all the way through the Tanks of August, but was surprised at the self criticism so far as well.

 

 

Thanks for the doctrine info Maior, although it's from the Russian perspective it sort of reminds me of the old 1980's DoD books they used to put out on the current year's Soviet force structure.