BDU-33 smoke not working?

I'm having some weird issues with the BDU-33s not marking with smoke, and it seems mostly repeatable for me:

-NTTR

-AV8B loaded with BDU-33s

-Fuse set IN, dropping in pairs CCIP

-Targets are 476th Air Weapons Range Objects (22OCT version)

-I religiously delete fxo and metashaders folders between missions

Last night I flew, dropped 3 pairs of BDU33s and none smoked. Debrief did not record any impacts on the range targets. Tonight I ran the same mission, same payload. 2 of the 3 pairs did not smoke. The last pair did smoke. Debrief again did not record any impacts on the range targets. Last week all 3 pairs smoked. Then they recently and suddenly stopped working reliably.

All my other effects, like updated explosions, rotorwash dust, etc. work fine.

I don't know if this is an NTTR issue, or some odd issue interacting with the 476th AWRO targets. When I have more time I will test on normal targets and in Caucasus.

Retested, found the problem.

It seems to be the "NTTR" container targets in the 476th package. Dropping BDU33s on standard DCS static objects works fine.