On the problems of the Russian Air Force and aviation industry

In regards to the recent Su-25 accident, former head of the Russian AF (Kornukov) said, "we arrived where we were headed," referring to the lack of proper maintenance and upgrade over the last 15+ years. In this case, the fault is with the rocket itself, not the aircraft. He complained about old weapons being stored for too long, going through too many transitions from one base to another. Weapons that should have been written off long a go, but remain in use because there is nothing to replace them with.

 

This is now the air force's main problem. The funding and fuel is there to pick up the flying hours, but the equipment is quickly running out of juice (or ran out already). Organizationally, there as yet does not appear to be a smart effort to address this. Meager upgrades of a few dozen aircraft are not going to fix it.

Makes sense - & likely to be all the more common as flying hours go back up I guess.

 

If the money keeps rolling in off petrochemicals, I can see Russia upgrading more than a few dozen aircraft as they try to re-assert their position on the world stage, but maybe a couple of simillar incidents will force them to get their act together & invest in ordinance and infrastructure too.

The problem has very deep roots, going straight back to the Soviet Union. I believe the will is now there, but the obstacles are buried deep. Outside of individual technology demonstrators, the Russian aviation industry, and even more so the Russian air force, have only stagnated further since the collapse. Today, the industry is more or less incapable of serially producing anything remotely competitive with Western equipment. They are having a hard enough time producing reliable equipment that is 10-15 years behind the curb. Export business has been successful, mainly because much of the electronic components can be foreign.

 

Besides the general lack of modern domestic production capacity, there is the problem of the munitions themselves. In the air to air arena, Russia is fully reliant on its stockpile of R-27s. They are not being replaced at all, as it would be a waste of money anyway. The R-77 doesn't appear to be in service at all or in minute numbers, even though the upgraded Su's and MiG's can carry it (all 30 or so of them that are in service...). All hope is now in a new generation missile being developed for the PAK-FA. We'll see how that turns out, but it's hard to imagine that it will be able to compete with the latest Western missiles, given the original problem of producing competitive and reliable electronics, which is all the more difficult in small scale. In air to ground, there is a little more progress, given the combat needs in Chechnya and elsewhere, but it's still nothing to be happy about. Russian JDAMs can't do much without a fully operational GLONASS system, which is likewise in limbo. Laser and IR-guided bombs/missiles are being developed further, but they alone cannot really fix the general informational and organizational stagnation. Russian air force operations haven't evolved much since Afghanistan - over 30 years a go.

 

Then there is the real problem... :) Money doesn't guarantee a fix in Russia. Money has begun to flow, but the results are arguable. The trends are positive, to be sure, but they still leave a great deal to be desired.

 

As I covered on Bear Rising a couple of times, the government is completely reorganizing the entire aviation industry. Whether this will ultimately prove a good measure or not, we probably won't be able to tell until at least five years down the line. On the one hand, centralization is good from an organizational point of view, but on the other, it's another subsidy and unlikely to yield long-term results.

 

I'm pessimistic, but hopeful. :)

Export business has been successful, mainly because much of the electronic components can be foreign.

 

Ok, so if they can make combat-worthy aircraft for export by using foreign components, why not domestically? There is no shame in outsourcing, even foreign outsourcing, to cover the areas you are lacking in. One can say that Russia's electronics industry is behind the West, but what is really meant is that its behind the U.S. and a handful of other countries who have the capability. That doesn't stop countries that don't have this capability from simply importing foreign equipment. At least Russia would be making the airframe, all the while they could develope their electronics industry. I'd rather have safe, combat-ready planes than worry about any saving of face by going totally domestic.

Former head of the Russian AF (Kornukov) said, "we arrived where we were headed," referring to the lack of proper maintenance and upgrade over the last 15+ years. In this case, the fault is with the rocket itself, not the aircraft...

I wonder why would such a man, the former head of Russian AF, speculate about the accident before accident report is released? What was Kornukov’s motive?

His speculation -generally speaking -is right on the money. It may not be the cause of this incident but he is still correct.

Ok, so if they can make combat-worthy aircraft for export by using foreign components, why not domestically? There is no shame in outsourcing, even foreign outsourcing, to cover the areas you are lacking in. One can say that Russia's electronics industry is behind the West, but what is really meant is that its behind the U.S. and a handful of other countries who have the capability. That doesn't stop countries that don't have this capability from simply importing foreign equipment. At least Russia would be making the airframe, all the while they could develope their electronics industry. I'd rather have safe, combat-ready planes than worry about any saving of face by going totally domestic.

It's not about shame, but about percieved security needs. It's simply official policy that all military equipment must be fully domestic. This policy has been chocking the military to no end. Without it, they might have used their meager funds to purchase some equipment, instead of waiting endlessly for Russian manufacturers to put something together, which is still not happening today (how many Su-34s are in service?). But, to do that, they would have to "let go" domestic firms into possible extinction, which neither the military establishment nor the government wanted. Instead, as we've seen recently, they are doing the opposite - consolidating the industry in the government's hands, essentially floating the whole thing up. This may turn out to be a saving grace, or not. The funny thing is, it's not like the government had to force its hand on the military not to buy foreign equipment, they willingly complied. Military organizations tend to be very conservative by nature, which is especially true in the case of the Russian military. It's all part of the deep rooted problems that I mentioned in my post. There are some others that I neglected to mention, such as a lack of competent personnel, in both the industry and the military, due to low pay and benefits. There is also the outdated education system, which produces graduates that are largely useless for today's high tech. firms.

 

Again though, there are some indications of positive changes. The "fully domestic" policy seems to be cracking a tiny bit and there is a lot of official recognition being given to many of these problems, which is a good sign. Besides lip service, there do appear to be some actual movements in the right direction as well, like much more training activity. So far though, it's very little and very slow. This is understandable, the Russian military is a monster of a bureaucracy and equipment. Pushing it in any particular direction other than inertial will require time and great effort and lots of money. We'll see how it turns out.

 

I wonder why would such a man, the former head of Russian AF, speculate about the accident before accident report is released? What was Kornukov’s motive?

There is no motive and being the former head of the Russian AF doesn't make him some kind of super-human. He is presumed to be knowledgeable on the subject and, as such, was asked for his input. He is retired and has no reason to tout any political line, so he expressed what he thought. It's not the first time nor, I hope, the last.

@EvilBivol-1

 

It sounds as if they have the worst of all worlds -- limited technological ability, a lack of money, AND an unwieldy bureaucracy. If someone who thought outside of the box could get around all the red tape, I bet they'd be ok. I wonder what would happen if they started allowing and accepting foreign components, sending people overseas to learn and foreign universities, etc. I bet you'd have lean and mean rather than fat and dull.

As we see paralleled in flight simulation development, easy solutions are much easier to find on an internet forum than to provide in real life. ;)

 

I believe the political and social will is now there. The money is also there. These are two key differences in today's Russia versus the 1990s, when all anyone cared about was to pack as much money as possible in their own pockets. The rest is mainly a question of solid analysis and decision-making. Personally, I'm pretty confident they will claw their way up, but the real question is whether it will be a temporary success or a foundation for long-term progress.

Ok, so if they can make combat-worthy aircraft for export by using foreign components, why not domestically?

 

Because most of domestic aircraft are funded thru tax-payers money!

 

If India wants a fleet of 24 MiG-29K they'll pay for it, Russian VVS won't!

There is no motive and being the former head of the Russian AF doesn't make him some kind of super-human. He is presumed to be knowledgeable on the subject and, as such, was asked for his input. He is retired and has no reason to tout any political line, so he expressed what he thought. It's not the first time nor, I hope, the last.

In my view, this would be a good indicator that Russia had a wrong man as a had of AF. Experts do not rush to conclusions. Experts look at facts before they make up their mind.

Like konny said, independenlty of what the cause was, the pilot was still right to complain.

I agree entirely with EvilBivol-1, Russian aerospace R&D is still world class but production infrastructure has been neglected and is failing. There also seems to have been a lack of coherent spending strategy in the industry due to the absence of domestic orders, a vast number of minimum-effort projects were started in a bid to win export contracts but few ever got off the ground. Consequently, even less money was available for the really important fundamental technologies for the future and as a result many such programmes are not as mature in Russia as they are in the West. Where the state did provide funding they frequently favoured Soviet-style projects rather than encouraging progressive post Cold War thinking.

 

The good news, IMHO, is that deficiencies in manufacturing infrastructure should be relatively easy to fix by 'simply' throwing money at the problem. Look no further than China to see how fast they were able to become a production powerhouse, while their lack of R&D experience is only now being overcome. Russia now has money and they still have excellent R&D - that's a pretty decent starting position. Additionally, tighter integration of the various design and production organisations in Russia is long overdue - there have been some rather bizarre situations where the production plant launched its own product improvement project in competition with the design bureau. This kind of 'inhouse' rivalry created unnecessary duplication and further diluted funding.

 

So, as you say, there is hope. With Russia's current political situation you can only hope that state involvement won't mess up a promising starting situation due to cronyism and institutional inertia, though.

 

EDIT: One thing I don't quite agree with is your assessment of the educational system. As far as the academic side is concerned, Russia's universities and institutes still have a great reputation and are much sought after by foreign students. The fact that many Russian graduates end up working abroad is another indication that they can't be too bad ;) In the fast-changing world of engineering no curriculum is ever going to be perfect though, that's a given. As long as they keep their eyes open they should be ok.