Numerical Advantage (OT moved out of the R-27ET thread)

[GGTharos]

Vekkinho, regardless of Iraqi performance, undestrand that USAF pilots were briefed to expect losses; they were going to be facing the best IADS in the world, as far as they were concerned, and if that didn't take them out, the front line fighter - the mig-29 - just might do so as well. This is reflected in descriptions/interviews of actions taken when locked by the opposition as well.

And did Iraqi aircraft work? They sure worked enough to force some aircraft defensive, they worked well enough to threaten several aircraft, they used baiting tactics to draw opponents into SAM zones, and heck, an F-18 was shot down by a MiG-25.

A number of aircraft were destroyed by SAMs as well.

 

You might think that the opponent 'wasn't worthy' but that's not what the USAF pilots thought when going in; nor were the Iraqi aircraft in un-serviceable condition, like it or not. Some iraqi pilots gave the USAF pilots a challenge, and some didn't.

[D-Scythe]

Israel might be a good example of Eagle's superiority but it stood up against early MiG-21 versions, a plane that was turning obsolete even in early '80s. F-15 were brought from US to counter Soviet MiG-25 and 25R that operated in the area and were piloted by Soviet pilots but hasn't scored any Foxbat kills at that time!

 

Um, Israeli F-15s killed 3 MiG-25s - the last MiG-25 kill being a shared kill with a HAWK battery.

 

Iraqi MiG-29, MiG-23 and Mirage F1 fleet during Dester Storm was in poor condition, believe me as I saw Iraqi MiG-23 that arrived to ZMAJ Zagreb in 1990 for major overhaul. Those planes never returned to Iraq as the war broke out in both Iraq and Yugoslavia. Experience of Iraqi pilots was lame (I remember F1 and Fulcrum driver's CFIT from Dogfights show). Credit goes to F-15C pilots, but in fact... Iraqi AF was capable of military show flyby showing of Iraqi might and dusting people's eyes but combat capability was questionable.

 

The IqAF at least had battle experience from the Iran-Iraq war. That is unquestionable - their Air Force was pretty battle hardened, if not well trained.

 

Furthermore, in every Air Force, no matter how bad or how small, you'd find a handful of aces.

 

Allied Force was another story, YUAF had 14 Fulcrums in total (12*9-12A & 2*9-51). Planes were bought from USSR in 1987, war in these regions broke out in 1991, Fulcrums were reallocated from Slovania, Croatia and BiH to Batajnica and Slatina AB, embargo struck, no spares, no flights, no personell for complete 9 years. Yugoslav pilots did take off against NATO planes but MiGs never operated in pairs simply because there was no airworthy airframes to make a pair. Single Red Fulcrum against 100+ Blue (NATO) aircraft. Perhaps realistic scenario would be twice as many Red fighters in air combat but in fact...

 

Again, yes, there were many more NATO fighters than MIG-29s, but in the actual engagements the numbers have always been pretty even. And the MiGs may not have operated in pairs, but they were definitely engaged as pairs.

 

And nobody likes F-16s anyway. Just ignore them.

[mvsgas]

D-Scythe

And nobody likes F-16s anyway. Just ignore them.

Ouch, F-16 might be a lawn dart, but I like lawn darts :D

[Vekkinho]

And nobody likes F-16s anyway. Just ignore them.

 

Nobody likes F-16?!! But it's a decent multirole platform capable to drop LGB's on a primary objective, fall back for inflight refuelling and continuing a CAP as a secondary objective, isn't it?!

 

Soviet doctrine is pretty different, you'd have Bears carpet bombing and a bunch of MiG-21 in a 15 minute CAP!

[RedTiger]

Nobody likes F-16?!! But it's a decent multirole platform capable to drop LGB's on a primary objective, fall back for inflight refuelling and continuing a CAP as a secondary objective, isn't it?!

 

Soviet doctrine is pretty different, you'd have Bears carpet bombing and a bunch of MiG-21 in a 15 minute CAP!

 

Psst...he's joking. :) (I think)

[Geier]

 

 

Again, yes, there were many more NATO fighters than MIG-29s, but in the actual engagements the numbers have always been pretty even. And the MiGs may not have operated in pairs, but they were definitely engaged as pairs.

 

 

Do you really think that these situations took part constantly?

I agree - e.g. the fight on 30 March'99 when 4 F16AM engaged 3 Mig29 that had just taken off from Batajnica.

 

But the fight on 24 March with major Kulachin? or with major Arizanov and Milutinovich? Theirs fights shows us the other picture

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

Again, yes, there were many more NATO fighters than MIG-29s, but in the actual engagements the numbers have always been pretty even.

Yes, out of several dozens of F-15's, F-16's, F-18's, ONLY two of which have the best tactical position would engage.

 

The fact is, the numerical ratio between the fighter airplanes was way over 10 to 1. That suggests that technological advantage was not as great as some of you suggest on this forum.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that F-15 is one of the best air superiority platforms. But, it is also a fact that NATO brought almost a hundred of them to fight 16 old and broken MiG-29A's.

[GGTharos]

This is an incorrect conclusion that does not follow from the information at hand.

 

That suggests that technological advantage was not as great as some of you suggest on this forum.

[D-Scythe]

There is no doubt in my mind that F-15 is one of the best air superiority platforms. But, it is also a fact that NATO brought almost a hundred of them to fight 16 old and broken MiG-29A's.

 

And once AGAIN, there were only TWELVE F-15Cs in theatre during the war. ONE TWO. From the 493rd Grim Reapers Fighter Squadron of the 48th FW, home base Lakenheath and stationed at Cervia AB, Italy during the war. This is PUBLIC data that can be confirmed in MULTIPLE channels.

 

Do you really think that these situations took part constantly?

I agree - e.g. the fight on 30 March'99 when 4 F16AM engaged 3 Mig29 that had just taken off from Batajnica.

 

But the fight on 24 March with major Kulachin? or with major Arizanov and Milutinovich? Theirs fights shows us the other picture

 

Your dates don't match up. The F-16AMs claimed first blood on the first night of war - March 24 - there were no engagements before them, and F-16AMs did not participate in any A/A combat after.

 

NATO claimed no kills on the 30th of March. March 26th saw one F-15C pilot shoot down 2 MiG-29s simultaneously with two AMRAAMs using TWS.

 

NATO's last kill came on April 5, 1999, bringing the total kills claimed by NATO to six.

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

This is PUBLIC data that can be confirmed in MULTIPLE channels.

Public data about Operation ALLIED FORCE

ORBAT? Where can you find that?

[D-Scythe]

Public data about Operation ALLIED FORCE

ORBAT? Where can you find that?

 

Everywhere - literally, just about any book, publication, squadron webpages, magazine, paper, TV, media etc. on Allied Force that would contain an ORBAT that would confirm that only twelve F-15Cs (from the 493rd FS) were involved directly in Allied Force and penetrated Serbian air space.

 

You had TV reporters and camera crews literally lining up on both ends of the runways at Cervia, Aviano and god knows what other airbases in the region. The public can see with their own eyes what was and was not deployed.

[D-Scythe]

But the fight on 24 March with major Kulachin? or with major Arizanov and Milutinovich? Theirs fights shows us the other picture

 

Kulachin was engaged by Mike Showers, commanding a two-ship element of F-15Cs. This is Shower's testimony of the night:

 

Nellis hero receives Distinguished Flying Cross- Air Force Air Combat Command News Service Feb 29, 2000

 

By Staff Sgt. Ed Scott

Air Warfare Center Public Affairs

 

NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev. (ACCNS) -- An U.S. Air Force Weapons School captain recently received the Distinguished Flying Cross for his efforts in Operation Allied Force over the former Republic of Yugoslavia March 24 during the first offensive action in North Atlantic Treaty Organization's history.

 

Capt. Mike Shower, flying an F-15C, was escorting the first of two strike packages - one package flew into southern Serbia while Shower's package went north over Belgrade. The strike packages were made up of 10 F-117s and two B-2 bombers with escort coming from a total of eight F-15Cs and F-16CJs.

 

(snip)

 

Approximately four minutes into the mission, Shower said they heard a "Splash one MiG-29" (a MiG-29 has been shot down) call from Airborne Warning and Control System from the south strike package. We got a little excited at that point since there was no doubt the Serbians were going to launch their aircraft. Six minutes into the mission, the captain's radar picture was complicated by an unidentified aircraft taking off from Batajinica Airfield, a MiG-29 base in northern Belgrade.

 

(snip)

 

At that moment, the strike package faced another challenge - protecting aircraft the escorts could not see nor had any idea as to their location. The F-117s work independently and have their own flying lines and timing.

 

"It's not like a typical package that is all together and you can be a shepherd," he said. "You can't see them on radar. It's dark so you can't see them visibly. You really don't know where they're at, so altitude really becomes important."

 

Shower relayed the information stating the MiG-29 posed a serious threat. One minute later, after ensuring a clear field of fire and a positive identification, he launched two AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles. Missing with his first shots, he pressed that attack well within range of the MiG-29's own missile line of fire.

 

"Under normal circumstances I could have fired my missiles, turned and ran away," he said. "You don't know where they are (F-117s) so I didn't think I had a choice of turning around and running away. You've got a MiG-29 running around in the area and there is a chance he could get lucky and find a stealth."

 

The chance the MiG-29 could have found a friendly made the situation risk factor high so Shower said, "we had to get in there and get the guy."

 

While shooting at the MiG-29, there was a F-117 between Shower's F-15C and the MiG-29. The next night, the F-117 pilot told Shower the first time he knew he was in an engagement with the MiG-29 was when he saw the first two missiles come across the top of his aircraft.

 

"He (the MiG-29) was about six miles away and I'm up pretty high pointing at him when I took my last shot," Shower said.

 

The captain said the final shot illuminated his aircraft from the rocket plume so the F-117 pilot could tell the two aircraft were approximately 2,000 feet from each other. The missile went right across the front of his aircraft down to the MiG-29 which blew up about 7,000 feet underneath the F-117. The MiG-29 crashed within 25 nautical miles of Batajinica Airfield.

 

"If it had been daytime, there might have been a whole different ending to the story," Shower said.

 

Four minutes after this engagement another MiG-29 took off from the airfield and once again Shower committed his flight to the engagement.

 

"You're thinking you might get one of these (MiG-29) in a night and here we are getting another one 11 minutes into the mission," he said. The mission called for them to have an hour in-country.

 

"Here he is in the beam (radar missile sites) and I knew he was the bad guy, but we can't get a full ID (identification) on him," he said. "We were lacking one piece of information - there was no doubt, but I couldn't shoot."

 

Not being able to identify the aircraft, Shower had to break off the intercept turning away from the MiG-29. The MiG-29 continued north apparently chasing a part of the strike package, later turning back south. In the meantime, Shower turned his element south after AWACS called out three other MiGs south of his position.

 

"We're quite concerned and excited with the call of three MiGs south of us over Belgrade," he said.

 

"I drive over Belgrade to the edge of the SAM rings and there's nothing there," he said. About that time the other MiG-29 in the north turned around, called by the F-16's. Shower turned his element north and ran a final intercept, achieving a lock and ID as a hostile MiG-29. He took a single shot at 5 miles but observed no fireball and was unable to pull in behind the MiG-29 for a second shot due to the close range and nighttime considerations. After maneuvering his aircraft, he was able to achieve another lock on, but could not get close enough to the MiG-29 to fire before reaching the SAM rings around Belgrade.

 

"I'd had enough for one night and I was glad it was time to return home," he said.

 

During the 50-minute flight back, Shower said he started sitting down lower in his seat - "sorta becoming jello." Returning home, he started hearing the radio calls: "one kill, possibly two along with the other package possibly getting one." He said the adrenaline started kicking in again. By the time he landed, he said the parking area was filled with people wanting to see the aircraft and hear the stories.

 

"I had shot four missiles in one night and punched off the wing tanks, so I had the only plane that looked empty," he said. "Everybody was shaking hands."

 

Mike Showers has been credited with shooting down Major Nikolic, and engaging Kulachin - that's ONE F-15C element, or two aircraft in total. Furthermore, the F-15Cs were escorting F-117s and B-2s, which pose no threat to Serbian MiGs and would be unlikely to be picked up by Serb radars - how would they possibly know they stumbled upon 20+ NATO aircraft then?

 

Arizanov was shot down by the F-15C pilot Col. Rodriguez, with one AMRAAM - again, in a two-ship F-15C element. Milutinovich was shot down by another two-ship of Dutch F-16s (or according to the Serbs, by a friendly SA-6).

 

So I implore you - where is this numerical supremacy that you guys speak of?

 

When the NATO attack finally came, on the evening hours of 24 March 1999, the MiGs went into action, being scrambled one after the other. The two fighters that took off from Nis and were vectored to intercept targets over southern Serbia and Kosovo, were swiftly dealth with by NATO fighters: the MiG-29 flown by Maj. Dragan Ilic was damaged - either by an AIM-120 fired from a Dutch F-16AM fighters, or by a Serbian SA-6 SAM, in a case of fratricide fire. The second MiG that scrambled from the same airfield was flown by Maj. Ilijo Arizanov, was shot down by an USAF F-15C. The pair from Batajnica experienced only a slightly better fate: first to launch was Maj. Nebojsa Nikolic, who was shot down shortly after take off. Maj. Ljubisa Kulacin evaded several missiles fired at him while fighting to bring his malfunctioning systems back in working order. Eventually realizing that he could not do anything, and with Batajnica AB under a severe attack, he diverted to Belgrade IAP, and landed safely. Kulacin's experience was not much different to that of his three other colleagues, all of which experienced immense problems with weapons and navigational systems on their aircraft: on the 18112, flown by Maj. Arizanov, both the radio and SPO-15 malfunctioned; on 18104, flown by Maj. Ilic, the radar failed; on 18111, flown by Maj. Nikolic, both the radar and the SN-29 missile guidance systems were inoperative, and apparently the SPO-15 also did not function properly.

 

The fifth and last MiG-29 to get airborne on that night was 18106, flown by Maj. Predrag Milutinovic. Immediately after take-off his radar failed and even the electrical generator malfunctioned. Shortly after, he was warned by SPO-15 of being acquired, but he evaded the opponent by several evasive manoeuvres. Attempting to evade further encounters and searching for an airfield where a landing was possible, he finally ended over Ribarska Banja, when his RWR warned him of acquisition by a ground-based radar. Seconds afterward the aircraft was hit and Milutinovic forced to eject.

 

In total, the 127.LAE launched five MiG-29s on that night, of which three were shot down, one badly damaged, and one returned in unserviceable condition. The only positive aspect was that not a single pilot was killed – even if it would take few days until one of them was recovered. Closer examination of available evidence indicates that Maj. Arizanov was shot down by USAF Col. Rodriguez, while Majors Nikolic and Kulacin were engaged by USAF Capt. Showers, who eventually shot down Nikolic. Maj. Milutinovic’s aircraft was probably shot down by KLU F-16AM, while it remains unclear who damaged Maj. Ilic’s MiG-29, even if it is possible that the 311. Self-Propelled Air Defence Missile Regiment, equipped with SA-6s and deployed in the area where his aircraft was hit, was responsible.

[Weta43]

I'm surprised by that - 4 AMRAAMS launched by an airforce weapons school captain & only 1 hit, & one of those misses from a range of only 5 miles...

[Vekkinho]

"Under normal circumstances I could have fired my missiles, turned and ran away,"

 

 

I'm surprised by that - 4 AMRAAMS launched by an airforce weapons school captain & only 1 hit, & one of those misses from a range of only 5 miles...

 

Just like LOMAC MP tactics of shoot and run home to rearm :music_whistling:

[D-Scythe]

I'm surprised by that - 4 AMRAAMS launched by an airforce weapons school captain & only 1 hit, & one of those misses from a range of only 5 miles...

 

There is nothing to indicate what type of missile Shower's shot in his final engagement - in fact, it's the only engagement where this is the case. Could be an AIM-9M - in Desert Storm, pilots were taking shots at 8 miles.

 

Just like LOMAC MP tactics of shoot and run home to rearm :music_whistling:

 

Well, it's common practice to extend after you A-pole - and Showers never "spammed."

[Cosmonaut]

an F-18 was shot down by a MiG-25.

 

I do remember something about this but I always believed the sam theory instead. Wasn't the Mig25 set up for reconnaissance? That would make it a guns kill, unless of course the Mig was on an intercept mission.... Anyone have any info on how this engagement actually played out?

[Teknetinium]

Lool they said by themselves that they had bombers around and they are saying that because there is a prove, it was downed, there must been some kind off jammer plains that made Yugoslavian Sam's nonoperational, U can enter a fight 1vs1 but still will have the number advantage if something really go to hell witch is hard when flying against half working Mig-29A, U have always someone to support ur run, If sams are firing then there was F-117 ordered to take care off them, where do u see that it was fear. Think in LOmac 4F-15C VS 4Mig. both sides have AWAC while the mig-29A awac have 20 bandits to sort out from the F-15, while the F-15 AWACS have only 4 migs :) the number is fear in the engagement but all the rest? u don't put 100 plains in the air when fighting 4 just because it will get harder to sort the bandits from friendly's.

I would think it was harder for the F-15s to sort out bandits from frindlys then to shot down the migs. :)

[Frostie]

So I implore you - where is this numerical supremacy that you guys speak of?

You are pointing out that USAF had 2 packages containing 8 fighters.

What about the rest of the 14 allied countries which flew and the USN?

To have so many aircraft in the sky imagine how hard it is for the small amount of Mig-29's to be aggresive.

 

On March 24th there were 80 allied aircraft involved.

To think that NATO would not use AirPower is absurd, this has been common knowledge for winning wars for decades, air power is made for shock value.

[GGTharos]

Info is very sparce; but if it was a SAM that would have been dead-confirmed a long time ago, because a SAM has a very, very specific visual signature - especially at night.

According to what I've read there's more detail in the description of the MiG-25 engaging that formation of F-18's and just a few off-hand mentions that it might have been a SAM.

 

In addition, I believe there was a UAV-MiG-25 engagement, as well as F-15-MiG-25 engagements so it looks like at least -some- MiG-25's were combat configured.

 

I do remember something about this but I always believed the sam theory instead. Wasn't the Mig25 set up for reconnaissance? That would make it a guns kill, unless of course the Mig was on an intercept mission.... Anyone have any info on how this engagement actually played out?

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

Everywhere - literally, just about any book, publication, squadron webpages, magazine, paper, TV, media etc. on Allied Force that would contain an ORBAT that would confirm that only twelve F-15Cs (from the 493rd FS) were involved directly in Allied Force and penetrated Serbian air space.

This ORBAT shows 81 F-15's in the theater, app. 200 F-16's, This ORBAT shows similar numbers.

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

I would think it was harder for the F-15s to sort out bandits from frindlys then to shot down the migs. :)

Yes! :)

[GGTharos]

I see 24 F-15C at most. F-15E's are never used in the air to air role.

[Vekkinho]

Lool they said by themselves that they had bombers around and they are saying that because there is a prove, it was downed, there must been some kind off jammer plains that made Yugoslavian Sam's nonoperational,

 

Jammer aircraft might be responsible for poor SAM radar usage but jammer aircraft pose no destructional threat as SEAD flight do!

 

So SAMs were inoperative because of SEAD escorts that usually fly along Strike packages, especially strike flights with conventional aircraft like Tornados, F/A-18s, Strike Eagles and Falcons. However Serbs had very good tactic with SA-6 of turning the emitter on just to acquire heading, alt and speed of aircraft, turn the radar off, fire the missile in estimated direction of that plane they're after and when missiles get close enough to score the hit or close enough to damage the aircraft radar was turn back on and missile would detonate. In similar manner one F-16 was lost over Bosnia back in 1996. (direct missile hit + check link below), and one F-16 (callsign Basher 34, IIRC) west of Belgrade when it's engine died after the nearby missile explosion.

 

(Edit:

Downing of USAF F-16 over Bosnia in 1996:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXdADSr9k6Q&feature=related

 

F-16 pilots in both cases were warned of SA-6 presence thru RWR but radar was active for too short to declare it's position and intentions. When RWR growled for the second time it was too late as missles were detonating at that point.

 

Stealth aircraft (B-2, F-117) operate independently so even friendly flights are unaware of their presence and position. You don't want the enemy to track groups of escorts telling there's something they're protecting.

 

In Stealth deployment You'd usually have a diversion flights of conventional aircraft luring the enemy to focus it's defense (GAI flights, SAMs and AAA) away from Stealths.

[D-Scythe]

This ORBAT shows 81 F-15's in the theater, app. 200 F-16's, This ORBAT shows similar numbers.

 

There are 26 F-15Cs - 20 stationed at Cervia AB, Aviano. If you're gonna use your OWN data to support your conclusions, please do NOT try to skew it in your favor, ok? Six of those F-15Cs are stationed at RAF Lakenheath - doubtful that they'll be doing too much intruding into Serbia.

 

F-15Es do NOT count as F-15Cs - nice try though. Points for effort.

 

You are pointing out that USAF had 2 packages containing 8 fighters.

What about the rest of the 14 allied countries which flew and the USN?

To have so many aircraft in the sky imagine how hard it is for the small amount of Mig-29's to be aggresive.

 

Not hard at all to be aggressive - just blast whatever they can in the sky. It's a target rich environment - it may be hard to stay alive, but it shouldn't be too hard to be aggressive. I fail to see your point.

 

On March 24th there were 80 allied aircraft involved.

To think that NATO would not use AirPower is absurd, this has been common knowledge for winning wars for decades, air power is made for shock value.

 

Nobody's denying that NATO wouldn't make use of their airpower. However, to say that Serbian MiGs faced 80 to 4 odds is equally absurd, if not more so.

 

The MiGs were never too badly out-numbered by enemy CAPs - 2 vs 1 at worst. In fact, in such a situation, the MiG would have the benefit of being able to go weapons free on whatever's flying, while the F-15Cs would have to make sure they don't shoot a friendly by mistake.

[X-man]

F-15E's are never used in the air to air role.

Even though they might not fly same tasks as F-15C, they still can cause great damage in the A2A arena. F.e. In the gulf war, F-15Es had engagements with MiG-29s. Im not sure if they got any kills though, but they sure wasnt loosing the fights. Also, F-15Es has flown A2A roles in rare cases. Not sure about AF though... :)

 

Ofcourse NATO Pilots took the Serbs seriosly. To not do that would have been a stupid mistake, but to say that Serbs were fighting on equal level or had any chance in winning the A2A is crazy.