Food for thought

[EtherealN]

Statistically speaking, this is rather unlikely

 

Statistically, we have a single data point and cannot say anything at all about the likelihood.

 

The trend however is that the more we find out, the rarer life tends to seem. We've moved from the assumption of life on both Mars and Venus to remote possibilities of there ever having been life on Mars of any sort, plus new data that strongly limits the likelihood of "life as we know it" within the central half of the galaxy and the same at the outermost edges (stuff to do with radiation and orbital chaos on one side and lack of requisite stellar history and thus lack of requisite elements on the other).

 

So we have a single data point of life, and the more we look we keep narrowing the scope of life as we know it, with a few exceptions for a few types of extremophiles (all found on earth). Even exoplanets don't generally help us so far since what most of those discoveries (by virtue of limitations in detector technology) have done is say that even our solar system layout is "unusual". Systems with "hot jupiters" for example would not be a likely life candidate since the requisite planetary migration would by necessity eject the planets that might in future have harbored "life as we know it".

 

So really, you cannot talk statistics about this. There is not enough data.

You can extrapolate from assumptions and fragmentary data, Frank Drake style. That is different. But unfortunately that is right now entirely pointless because we don't know even close to enough to make a judgement.

 

- and it would be pretty surprising to find us being the only intelligent beings in the entire universe - but yes, you are right. Until we see some real proofs of other civilization, it's still nothing more than a statistic.

 

The really pertinent point is that if we are indeed alone, if we are the first, it is quite literally impossible for us to know this. We can NEVER "find this out". It is physically impossible to get positive evidence of this. (However, it can be "easily" falsified through just finding something out there that is alive.)

 

Here is one thing for you to consider regarding life: for every star like our sun, assuming it has a planetary system and that it is the right kind of planetary system, you have between a 2 and 10 billion year period in which life might "get a go at it". But if we consider red dwarves, which are more numerous - WAY more numerous - we're talking 2-30 trillion years. Considered this way, I'd say the universe is clearly at the start of it's "potentially life-harboring" period, considering that there are stars around right now, in a universe 13,7 billion years old, that have before them a lifespan that is a thousand times longer than the current age of the universe... And remember, it took no less than some 4.5 billion years for this earth to give rise to technological life. That's a third of the age of the universe to eventually have a single species of ape to get somewhere.

Edited December 28, 2012 by EtherealN

[Rotorhead]

@ Etheral:

 

Yes, I can basically agree on everything.

 

We can make Frank Drake style estimates, but you're right, we don't know input parameters. How many stars out there have planetary systems? How many of those planets are suitable for life? And on how many of them does life actually exist? We don't know, and even if we did, then it will be only a statistic, not a fact.

 

While the idea of extraterrestrial life somewhere out there still seems acceptable to me, right now, we have no real proofs of it, and that remains the most plausible theory until proven otherwise.

 

And even if there exists life somewhere, did they really develop to be at least on par with us humans? Not even talking about those super-advanced aliens who can travel the space and bend reality however they want.:alien:

Absolutely different story.

[Bucic]

The banking system

 

Given that most of the cinematography now is crap I've been watching docs for some time now. When I saw the title it rang a bell. Off to evernote... 20 seconds... vhhalla! So, what my note says about the movie:

"contains UFO mumbo-jumbo but also contains one of the best explanations of the banking system (that we know, -if we know how it works-, consumes and will consume vast majority of efforts of every human being now and in the future)"

 

the pyramid of who's over who

 

what happens when we take a loan

 

This movie is a good example that it pays not to discard a documentary by even half of it we think is silly.

 

To pick up the banking motive:

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people. -THOMAS JEFFERSON

and the same here

 

 

And (still from my note on the movie):

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."

- Henry Ford

 

I often play with peoples reaction on fraction reserve banking. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_reserve_banking#On_fractional_reserve_banking

Not to waste your time - banks own ~5% of what they lend to people.