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Statistical investigation on flight test results.


Yo-Yo

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  • ED Team

There are a lot of speculations about the rate of climb of different planes. For those, who have not marked themselves in the thread about K4 climb rate, I remind that the main problem of historically accurate modelling (or proving that this modelling is really historically accurate for some people) is a lack of flight tests for some planes and for some power rates, weights, etc....

 

The idea is to use extrapolation using the common methods of it.

 

First of all, the tests must be reducted to the same conventional mass.

 

 

It can be done using simple formula of energy balance

 

 

Vy*m*g = N*Eff - TAS*m*g/(L/D)max,

 

where Vy - climb rate, m/s,

m*g - plane weight,

N - power in W

Eff - prop efficiency

(L/D)max - maximal lift/drag ratio

 

or

 

Vy = N*Eff/m/g + TAS/(L/D)max

 

As the chages of mass and, possibly, of the power can be presumed minor, we can differentiate this formula regarding mass and power and use the first one to reduce to the same mass and the second one - to extrapolate climb rate for any engine power (using this fact that the depenadance is close to linear presuming Eff changes as negligable for our purposes).

 

The second simplification is that we intentionally neglect exhaust thrust and radiator drag. First of all, at climb they have opposite signes and approximately equal. For example, if exhaust gives 15% of additional power and the radiator steal 10% or vice versa it will be only 5% we neglected).

 

The more results - the better, but this method allow to find "fallen out points" sometimes due to banal lapse in numbers or bad test methods.

 

The work was conducted for initial SL ROC.

 

The results of this work for Spitfire IX, Mustang B/D and even H and finally 109G with DB 605X that is very close to K4 regarding its airframe.

 

 

Then, there are two ways to predict ROC performance: to use a trendline over flight tests results and to use the power derivative...

 

To add an intrigue I leave this post without the results for a while... to let critics to express their arguments about this method... :) keep in mind - I already have the results...


Edited by Yo-Yo

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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I'm sure there are other factors as well that can not be reproduced in a video game to compare to the original aircraft's climb rate...example: panel fit's , rivet exposure drag etc....it also seems to me that the true rudder performance can not be achieved in a video game as well...keep at it though! :)

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I'm sure there are other factors as well that can not be reproduced in a video game to compare to the original aircraft's climb rate...example: panel fit's , rivet exposure drag etc....it also seems to me that the true rudder performance can not be achieved in a video game as well...keep at it though! :)

 

Rivet exposure drag did help the aircraft get better speed, but not to a scale people might expect.

 

I read somewhere that for instance the Spitfire was tested with flush rivets and regular rivets and the difference in terms of max achievable airspeed was around 5 mph, so around 8 km/h.

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If you see real planes real test flights measurements you could be surprised of the experimental points dispersion on the graphs... :) 8 kph is about statistical dispersion.

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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Rivet exposure drag did help the aircraft get better speed, but not to a scale people might expect.

 

I read somewhere that for instance the Spitfire was tested with flush rivets and regular rivets and the difference in terms of max achievable airspeed was around 5 mph, so around 8 km/h.

 

Oh OK that's very interesting Chuck, thanks

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Ok, why is this called a statistical investigation? It sounds more like calculus to me. I reached differential equations in college and decided that was enough, and I have forgotten most of what I learned.:book:

P-51D | Fw 190D-9 | Bf 109K-4 | Spitfire Mk IX | P-47D | WW2 assets pack | F-86 | Mig-15 | Mig-21 | Mirage 2000C | A-10C II | F-5E | F-16 | F/A-18 | Ka-50 | Combined Arms | FC3 | Nevada | Normandy | Straight of Hormuz | Syria

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Ok, why is this called a statistical investigation? It sounds more like calculus to me. I reached differential equations in college and decided that was enough, and I have forgotten most of what I learned.:book:

 

Statistical, because a pool of similar data was used to have an opportunity to use averaging after reducing to the same mass.


Edited by Yo-Yo

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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OK, just to have fresh brain meal fo weekend.

 

Thin lines Vy = dVy/dN * N + C , where C is a value to coincide the line with the trendline (or draw it close to compare the slopes)

 

Thick lines are linear trendlines drawn using standard statistical method (automatic Excel feature).

 

The highest power point for 51H is from American calculation.

 

The brown quad is German calculation from the well known report... it does not seem to be in the right lines for 109.

 

 

Eff values were taken 0.78 for high diameter props and .76 for 3 m VDM prop.

 

Masses were reduced to standard 4300 kg for all P-51, 3400 kg for Spit and 109 K4.

 

The main results are:

 

1. ROC values gathered from different tests (different test sites, teams, countries) being reduced by mass and cleaned from the fallen out points are grouped near linear rule that allows to neglect efficiency changes with power increasing.

 

2. The trendline has its slope corresponding to dVy/dN derivative calculated using very basic aircraft parameters.

 

3. There must be found a very special reasons to explain why 109K4 ROC (in real flight, not in calculations!) must be 22.5 m/s, so far from the trendlines.

1564209574_StatROC1.gif.3c726f0f46d61172faca25be770435f7.gif


Edited by Yo-Yo

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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Rivet exposure drag did help the aircraft get better speed, but not to a scale people might expect.

 

I read somewhere that for instance the Spitfire was tested with flush rivets and regular rivets and the difference in terms of max achievable airspeed was around 5 mph, so around 8 km/h.

 

I believe the difference was much bigger - 22mph as tested on Spitfire K5054. It has been tested to determine, which areas were having significant influence on the overall drag and which areas they could get away with cheaper regular rivets in the production series of the type.

 

Not that it matters, and sorry for OT.

 

Great thread. No matter what flight models the ED will come up with, there will be still people complaining. :D Perhaps an official set of performance graphs / dog houses would be beneficial.

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3. There must be found a very special reasons to explain why 109K4 ROC (in real flight, not in calculations!) must be 22.5 m/s, so far from the trendlines.

May be changes in airframe are wider than it looks like? May be drag is greater for some reason, wing bulbs indeed? Later war German aircraft are known to had building flaws but we here have a "perfect" model, may have something to do with calculated vs real charts mismatch? Just a guess.

 

 

Whatever, this is like a parallel Universe, people complaining about their Luftwaffe rides are overpowered :lol: :lol: :lol:.

 

S!

"I went into the British Army believing that if you want peace you must prepare for war. I believe now that if you prepare for war, you get war."

-- Major-General Frederick B. Maurice

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May be changes in airframe are wider than it looks like? May be drag is greater for some reason, wing bulbs indeed? Later war German aircraft are known to had building flaws but we here have a "perfect" model, may have something to do with calculated vs real charts mismatch? Just a guess.

 

 

Whatever, this is like a parallel Universe, people complaining about their Luftwaffe rides are overpowered :lol: :lol: :lol:.

 

S!

 

You lost the point: we are speaking about the theoretical estimation that somebody wants to see as a true reference, so we would better to search for the reason what is wrong with this estimation.

 

,


Edited by Yo-Yo

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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with what you say qualify as realist...

 

With what WHO says?

 

Now Jojo is a maths man. You gotta be in this line of activity. I could, if I forced myself, to follow the math, but since I don't, I'm gonna back off this thread pretty soonish. But not before I say this: if you want to retort what's said in the OP, this is not the way to do it. So please, pretty please, present YOUR calculations next and I'll see if I can be arsed to follow them :D

 

OK, carry on gents & gentettes... now where the hell did I put me coat?!?

The DCS Mi-8MTV2. The best aviational BBW experience you could ever dream of.

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You lost the point: we are speaking about the theoretical estimation that somebody wants to see as a true reference, so we would better to search for the reason what is wrong with this estimation.
You're right :thumbup: .

 

S!

"I went into the British Army believing that if you want peace you must prepare for war. I believe now that if you prepare for war, you get war."

-- Major-General Frederick B. Maurice

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Yo-Yo: I don’t think I quite follow your logic in this thread: On the one hand we are to dismiss the calculated results from Messerschmitt and Focke-Wulf because they were calculated and not based on flight test.

 

However, you yourself now do a calculation to shows trends that coincide with your viewpoint that the climb rates in DCS are now correctly modeled. Is that not a double standard?

 

In addition, I don’t think you can make the sort of simplifications you do in your method of calculation:

 

In post #1 you claim: ”The second simplification is that we intentionally neglect exhaust thrust and radiator drag. First of all, at climb they have opposite signes and approximately equal”.

 

Where did you come up with that? Where is the proof that it is so?

 

I’m not at all convinced you can make such simplifications and in fact I think I think the very reason you get the results you do proves the point. But if we are to treat this scientifically, If you claim that you can neglect these since they cancel out then the onus is on you not me to prove it is so.

 

I summed up my arguments about what I think the climb rate should be for both the K4 and the Dora and my method of calculation here so no need to reiterate that:

 

http://forums.eagle.ru/showpost.php?p=2398986&postcount=3

 

Regarding the trend chart you posted in post #8, I in fact compiled a similar figure showing the climb rate for the Me109 with different power to weight ratios (P/W) about a year ago which I have attached below. Granted, this compilation is for 2 Km altitude but translating this to the sea level then the climb rate target for the K4 at 1.8 ata should IMHO be around 23.3 m/s not the 25-26 m/s which seems to be the currently targeted climb rate in DCS.

 

So to sum up: Sorry, but I’m more inclined to trust the Messerchmitt and Focke-Wulf calculations rather than your calculation as outlined in post #1 above. Especially since they agree so well with my own calculations. :)

109climbcomp.gif.bd6de9580de347059ed43e085056bb18.gif


Edited by Pilum

 

Old Crow ECM motto: Those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk........

 

http://www.crows.org/about/mission-a-history.html

 

Pilum aka Holtzauge

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Pilum,

 

Seeing yo-yo's graph I think it's pretty clear why he calls his argument statistical. Compared to the trend line established by the other 109s the 109K-4 data point is an influential point. Including it in the regression would make dVy/dN for the 109 much lower.

 

I'm not clear on what role mass is playing in the graph, or if it is play a role at all (as yo-yo says he is assuming 3400kg for the Spit and 109?).


Edited by gavagai

P-51D | Fw 190D-9 | Bf 109K-4 | Spitfire Mk IX | P-47D | WW2 assets pack | F-86 | Mig-15 | Mig-21 | Mirage 2000C | A-10C II | F-5E | F-16 | F/A-18 | Ka-50 | Combined Arms | FC3 | Nevada | Normandy | Straight of Hormuz | Syria

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Pilum,

 

Seeing yo-yo's graph I think it's pretty clear why he calls his argument statistical. Compared to the trend line established by the other 109s the 109K-4 data point is an influential point. Including it in the regression would make dVy/dN for the 109 much lower.

 

I'm not clear on what role mass is playing in the graph, or if it is play a role at all (as yo-yo says he is assuming 3400kg for the Spit and 109?).

 

Well I think it is a weak statistical argument: If you look at the trend line for the 109 (thin brown line) this is drawn based on a scatter of data points at 1300 hp and then just one point at 1450 hp. Now if the point at 1450 hp was just a teeney-weeney bit higher or lower then the result at 1800 hp (i.e. the K4 DB605D at 1.8 ata) would be impacted significantly. So any error on the part 1450 hp value has a huge impact on the results.

 

Hardly a sound statistical foundation surely? OTOH, if you read off the Me109 climb rate at 1800 hp in Yo-Yo's figure in post #8 you get 23.5 m/s which I can only agree with ;)

 

Old Crow ECM motto: Those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk........

 

http://www.crows.org/about/mission-a-history.html

 

Pilum aka Holtzauge

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Look more closely. There are two points for 1450hp. Also, some of the lower points are for a little more than 1300hp, and others a little less than 1300hp. So there are three different bhp ratings.

P-51D | Fw 190D-9 | Bf 109K-4 | Spitfire Mk IX | P-47D | WW2 assets pack | F-86 | Mig-15 | Mig-21 | Mirage 2000C | A-10C II | F-5E | F-16 | F/A-18 | Ka-50 | Combined Arms | FC3 | Nevada | Normandy | Straight of Hormuz | Syria

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Pilum,

 

Seeing yo-yo's graph I think it's pretty clear why he calls his argument statistical. Compared to the trend line established by the other 109s the 109K-4 data point is an influential point. Including it in the regression would make dVy/dN for the 109 much lower.

 

I'm not clear on what role mass is playing in the graph, or if it is play a role at all (as yo-yo says he is assuming 3400kg for the Spit and 109?).

 

Different weights was reduced to the. same standard weight for all tests for a family.

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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Well I think it is a weak statistical argument: If you look at the trend line for the 109 (thin brown line) this is drawn based on a scatter of data points at 1300 hp and then just one point at 1450 hp. Now if the point at 1450 hp was just a teeney-weeney bit higher or lower then the result at 1800 hp (i.e. the K4 DB605D at 1.8 ata) would be impacted significantly. So any error on the part 1450 hp value has a huge impact on the results.

 

Hardly a sound statistical foundation surely? OTOH, if you read off the Me109 climb rate at 1800 hp in Yo-Yo's figure in post #8 you get 23.5 m/s which I can only agree with ;)

 

Ther is the second argument you omitted - trendlines having more points as a base show good matching in slope with a thin lines based on energy equation. The brown line as well.

Ніщо так сильно не ранить мозок, як уламки скла від розбитих рожевих окулярів

There is nothing so hurtful for the brain as splinters of broken rose-coloured spectacles.

Ничто так сильно не ранит мозг, как осколки стекла от разбитых розовых очков (С) Me

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