R-27R (not ER)

[Cik]

people like to think that modern missiles are actually at least semi-effective

 

 

whether they are is hard to say. my guess is yes(?) but i'm sure they said that before vietnam.

 

 

 

"what's the PK of your weapon system?" everybody always answers 90%- but are they ever really?

 

 

missiles are actually chiefly bad because of CM effectiveness. theoretically you could hit a target at 20nm~ with R-27ER, even assuming some defense assuming you launch high and fast (~1.4m angels 40) but realistically speaking he's going to pop 4 chaff and he will decoy every pylon you've got. F-pole then becomes irrelevant and so everybody complains.

 

 

granted, if they actually worked people would probably complain about king sukhoi tossing down rods of god from angels 40 1.4m and receiving kills at pretty nice ranges.

 

 

but yeah everyone i know says it's busted, though exactly what's wrong with it and in what ratios you don't get a lot of agreement. but the fact that BVR is twisted into some sort of terrain masking competition 90% of the time speaks to the fact that it's seriously twisted, just imo.

[Max1mus]

Displaying PK as a % is bullshit, heres why.

 

Missiles arent magic and have a random chance if they will hit or not. Nothing (except quantum particles) is random. You will never die to a BVR missile if you know all the parameters do everything correctly.

 

Part of the issue is that you get to fly all aircraft you want in DCS, so you know the weaknesses of the missiles and how to abuse them.

 

IRL, you often have no idea what an enemy missile type is actually capable of. IRL a flanker pilot doesnt know the range of an enemy AMRAAM and that he needs to turn cold at 15km to survive. But in DCS, good flanker pilots have flown the F-15 alot aswell and know exactly how the AMRAAM works and how to counter it.

 

One example: An AIM-120 (It could even be the D type) is fired at a MIG-31 at <20 miles which is traveling at almost Mach 3. The AMRAAM developers would say: 90% PK. The 120 accellerates to mach 3-4 in the few seconds, then its out of fuel and glides. All the MIG has to do now, is turn cold. It will simply outrun the missile, a few turns will bleed enough energy off so it is below mach 3.

 

TL;DR:

DCS Missiles are O.K. they are not perfect but they come close to their IRL performance (kinetically, we have no idea how exactly modern jammers and countermeasures affect missiles). What really defines the chance if a missile will hit or not, is the enemy pilots skill.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Max1mus

[Cik]

you take all that into account fam

 

 

against a hot target with a max radian turn of X and a pilot which will defend at Y seconds post-launch with a total energy of Z, the PK of this AMRAAM is 0%

 

 

but even assuming you are "dead dead" IE, the AMRAAM has enough energy to hit you, some of it's subcomponents may fail- the seekerhead, booster, fins, etc. may cause it to miss regardless.

 

 

 

displaying PK as percentile is 100% fine, assuming you lay out the conditions as to when it happened. you can run a model that has some stochastic element and generate a spread and then say "under these conditions, AMRAAM has a PK of 90% and it's an 100% valid statement.

 

 

also your statement that pilots don't have any idea of how an enemy missile performs is a little weird, there are large organizations called intelligence agencies who's job it is to generate performance characteristics of enemy equipment senpai, you would never actually get into a duel with someone without knowing how their shit works if you could help it

[Bushmanni]

Calculating Pk before launch is totally useless even if you are able to do it accurately by considering all the possible variables including all possible maneuvers by the pilot. The problem lies in the fact that you can't determine what maneuver the pilot chooses as then you would need to have some kind of paranormal ability to see into the future. If you assume all possibilities equally likely your Pk will be hopelessly optimistic against good pilots and overtly pessimistic against clueless beginners.

[Ironhand]

FWIW, any percentage, whether Pk or any other predictive measure, is meaningless unless you know the parameters under which it was determined.

Edited August 11, 2018 by Ironhand