His counterpoint is that ECM has also improved. But even a single BVR missile kill in a fair 4vs4 (say) fight turns a fair fight into an unfair fight. And even the pretty crappy AIM-7s in Vietnam polished off a significant number of MiGs pre-dogfight.
And furthermore, all the planes Sprey hated, turned out successful. F-15, F-14. Even the F-4, which he described as a terrible plane was about 3:1 in the hands of the USAF and USMC and 6:1 in the hands of the USN. With a gun it would have been more successful though.
https://web.archive.org/web/20121031043534/http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?180731-Modern-fighter-combat-records