What do you think of 2012?

[EtherealN]

and global warming and the year 2000 chip bug will all happen....

 

oh yeah, I forgot,,, we have the worst blizzards in 100 years and there was no year 2000 chip crisis.. now go get a job and shut up..

 

 

:doh:

 

Actually, this was the warmest January pretty much since we started measuring it, excepting '98. ;)

Remember that we are talking about global temperatures. Areas like where I myself live are colder than usual, but the poles are warmer than usual, due to a circular weather pattern that usually is locked at the north pole but has a cycle of depressions further south - like this winter.

 

But when I checked average temps since 1979, only 98 was hotter than this specific January (caused by some anomalies in how El Niño behaved). There's more to the global thing than a few specific latitudes in the northern hemisphere. ;)

 

Now for myself, I am slightly unsure on whether I want to "blame" it all on humans. The IPCC is a very politicised body, but the opposition is also politicised. But the mechanism is there - if you don't agree that adding CO² to the atmosphere will cause heating, you need to take that up with the Standard Model of Physics. (Basically, radiation comes in from the sun, heats up the ground, the ground radiates but at a different frequency than the sun's incoming radiation, and is absorbed by CO² and methane instead of escaping, same way the glass in a greenhouse is used to trap heat. The more of them you have, the more gets trapped. Ground radiates, ice reflects.)

 

The basic difficulty is in figuring out what to do. Because something has to be done no matter if it's anthropogenic or not, because our civilization has had a habit of placing our urban centers close to the ocean (the russians can laugh all the way to the bank, having shown the rest of the world how to plan ahead there :D ), but several studies have shown that many of the countries that might need help, like Bangladesh, could more use investment and development of industry rather than more direct measures like trying to make them use solar power - because that way, when they run into climate issues around 2040 or 2050, their standard of living will be equivalent to Holland today. And Holland knows how to deal with encroaching seas.

 

 

The planet warms, the poles melt, fresh water filling the oceans messes up the deep see currents, this stops the flow of warm water to the north, this causes colling and another ice age. We have been through many cycles like this. At more than one point in the very early life of the planet it was totally covered in ice. Do a search for "snowball earth" and read all about it.

 

AFAIK it was actually only once, and the evidence for it is not uncontested. BBC Horizon is good, but not perfect. :P

 

There have been several really big ice ages though, but only one instance of complete glaciation.

 

But yes, there have been many dramatic climate changes before. But back then there wasn't 6-7 billion+ humans with 80% of it's urban centers in close proximity to oceans. This recent recession is nothing compared to having to relocate 4 billion people plus almost all the important financial centers in the world.

 

Interesting stuff to read about. Kinda scary too at time.

 

I must recommend Dr. Phil Plait's book "Death from the Skies!: These are the Ways the World Will End". Basically a list of all the many fun ways the universe can kill us all very suddenly and without us having a real opportunity of doing anything about it, several of which being of the complete no-warning type (unlike asteroids, which we can spot). :D

 

Now, the really interesting thing in all this is... There's actual scientists working on all these things, although the do occassionally have strong disagreements. 2012... I loved the guy that dropped the hilarious quote "earthquakes bigger than the richter scale" on Penn & Teller, that was awesome. :D

Edited February 13, 2010 by EtherealN

[Prophet4no1]

I'm guessing the book talks about Gamma Ray bursts? that's about the nastiest thing from space I can think of. Very sudden and no warning. Pretty much instant death.

[vrv]

When nothing happens on 12/12/2012 I am going to under-take a massive trolling and flaming campaign against all of the conspiracy geeks and doomsday folk. You can thank the internet for creating 2012 :thumbup:

[EtherealN]

I'm guessing the book talks about Gamma Ray bursts? that's about the nastiest thing from space I can think of. Very sudden and no warning. Pretty much instant death.

 

Aye, them and a bunch of other things, though the GRB's are the ones with the biggest surprise factor.

[Prophet4no1]

I with there was a way to see a GRB. From what I know so far, they are caused by supermassive black holes exploding. At least that's what I have read and seen. They are at the farthest edge of the universe and are the oldest parts. Prett much entire galaxies that have collapsed into the supper massive black hole in the center.

[sobek]

I with there was a way to see a GRB.

 

There is a way. Just look at fireworks when they're here. :)

 

Information can not travel faster than the speed of light in vacuum (and spare me with the quantum physics, yeah i know there could be exceptions, but it is how the universe usually works). Sucks if you want to predict something hitting you that's travelling at the speed of light.

[Boulund]

There is a way. Just look at fireworks when they're here. :)

 

Information can not travel faster than the speed of light in vacuum (and spare me with the quantum physics, yeah i know there could be exceptions, but it is how the universe usually works). Sucks if you want to predict something hitting you that's travelling at the speed of light.

 

Unless some...thing(?) sends you a message before they let loose the other thing saying: "Hey, i've got this thing on my tail and it's going to hit you right..NOW"

 

:D:cry:

[sobek]

Unless some...thing(?) sends you a message before they let loose the other thing saying: "Hey, i've got this thing on my tail and it's going to hit you right..NOW"

 

I'm sure that is perfectly helpful ;)

[EtherealN]

I with there was a way to see a GRB. From what I know so far, they are caused by supermassive black holes exploding. At least that's what I have read and seen. They are at the farthest edge of the universe and are the oldest parts. Prett much entire galaxies that have collapsed into the supper massive black hole in the center.

 

Not quite. They are caused when a really massive star dies in a hypernova, creating a black hole (Funneling the gamma rays out the magnetic poles.). The reason why most of the ones we see are a long way away is simply that it is a very tight beam - the odds of "seeing" one that goes off in our galaxy are slim, and also that there is relatively few ultramassive stars around nowadays (they only "live" a few million years, as opposed to a main sequence's 10 billion...).

 

Also note that IF they were "the oldest parts" of the universe in the notion of galaxy-wide collapse into the parent SMBH, then the big mystery would be how galaxies had formed AND died that fast.

 

Remember that there is a difference between a GRB and an "active galactic nuclei" or "quasar", the latter two being an actively feeding SMBH, and the GRB being a form of stellar death (and black hole birth).

 

The really "neat" thing is that not too far away there are hypernova candidate stars with their poles aimed straight at or almost straight at us within a few thousand light years. If they blow while the pole is still aimed at us, we are well and truly toast. :P

[Prophet4no1]

Makes you feel all warm and fuzzy don't it.

[159th_Viper]

The really "neat" thing is that not too far away there are hypernova candidate stars with their poles aimed straight at or almost straight at us within a few thousand light years. If they blow while the pole is still aimed at us, we are well and truly toast. :P

 

Bring your own Marshmellows - Gonna be a Hoot......:P

[Lucas_From_Hell]

I don't care if it will actually happen, nor do I care about what is it at all - it doesn't stand a chance with MacGyver and Chuck Norris on our side :D

 

And as we're talking about supermassive black holes, anyone else here is into modern alternative rock?

[Prophet4no1]

That vidoe was heavilly influenced by Tool vids.

[mikoyan]

the russians want to blow up an asteroid that is coming to close to us on 2032 or something like that;

that is a date that really scares me! We should have an asteroid defense system already, we may get blown by and asteroid anytime but we still live happily like nothing could happen!

[EtherealN]

Bah, blow up... People have watched too much Armageddon. (And better hope it isn't porous or your bomb will do nothing.)

 

For an asteroid that far into the future, just park a 200kg satellite next to it for 10 years as a gravitational tug. That's enough. ;)