Large comet may hit Mars next year

[Speed]

http://www.space.com/20045-comet-hit-mars-2014.html

TLDR- possible impact of a large comet on Mars in Oct. 2014; only a slight chance, but no matter what, it's gonna be close. Most likely, an impact will be ruled out in a few weeks. Our Martian spacecraft and rovers should get some nice pictures, at least. There's a high probability that Mars will pass deep inside the comet's coma. Maybe Curiosity will be able to capture the meteor storm that should result from this on video :)

 

Just feel lucky it isn't heading for Earth- and consider, Earth is an easier target to hit than Mars. The comet is probably large enough to destroy human civilization, and there would be nothing we could do to stop it. Preventing cometary impacts is a lot harder than preventing asteroid impacts.

 

It seems to be a busy time for comets, if you're in the southern hemisphere, you should step outside, you might get to see something like this:

 

The comet at the bottom of the image, comet PANSTARRS, is rounding the Sun and should become visible to northern hemisphere observers in a few days, see here: http://www.space.com/20059-comet-pan-starrs-explained-infographic.html

 

In November of this year, comet ISON is expected to become extremely bright, possibly brighter than the full moon and visible in the daytime.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Speed

[EtherealN]

Oh gods dammit...

 

...why didn't I accept that Chilean contract? :(

[Speed]

Oh gods dammit...

 

...why didn't I accept that Chilean contract? :(

 

Screw the comets, the southern hemisphere just has a vastly better sky, period.

 

 

Omega Centauri is absolutely stunning just 10 degrees above the horizon- M13 should not even be compared to it, M13 is not even remotely in the same class, M13 is just a boring, sh**ty object. And that's comparing M13 directly overhead to Omega Centauri just 10-15 degrees above the horizon. I can't even begin to imagine what Omega Centauri would like like directly overhead through a 20"+ scope.

 

And some say that 47 Tucanae is even better...

 

And of course, you get the Eta Carina nebula, LMC, SMC, the Orion nebula, the Virgo cluster too even... the only things you miss out on would be a good view of the Veil nebula, M51, M31, M33.

 

Oh and, best of all, you get to view the spectacular center of the Milky Way, not skirting the southern horizon, but directly overhead.

 

The distribution of spectacular sky objects is so unfair, it makes you want to cry.

 

Someday I will go south, with a big scope.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2013 by Speed

[EtherealN]

Agreed.

 

Been planning to go there one of these days, just need a contract that's big enough to merit me flying down there rather than managing from home. (Hell, I actually speak the chilean version of spanish before having stepped foot on the continent, so... :P )

 

More on topic though, I almost hope it'll hit Mars. I suspect there's an awesome amount of information that could be taken from being able to observe that. (Though I'd be way heartbroken if Curiosity was taken out by that...)

[Speed]

Agreed.

 

Been planning to go there one of these days, just need a contract that's big enough to merit me flying down there rather than managing from home. (Hell, I actually speak the chilean version of spanish before having stepped foot on the continent, so... :P )

 

More on topic though, I almost hope it'll hit Mars. I suspect there's an awesome amount of information that could be taken from being able to observe that. (Though I'd be way heartbroken if Curiosity was taken out by that...)

 

Actually, I DO hope it hits Mars, I believe the scientific benefits probably outweigh the loss of Opportunity and the potential loss of Curiosity. We would learn a tremendous amount about large terrestrial planet impacts, the Martian atmosphere, the viability of certain terraforming techniques, etc. Comet Shoemaker Levy 9 was cool but it wouldn't even hold a candle to what we would learn from a large impact with Mars.

 

I would think that Curiosity would be most in danger of being overheated from the combined heat of all the little pieces of Martian crust re-entering the atmosphere after being kicked up into suborbital trajectories. If it survived that, it would probably be fine... unlike Opportunity and the dinosaurs, it's nuclear powered :)

[Cali]

Why is it cloudy every day here! I'll be on the lookout for these guys the next few days.

[Speed]

Here is a simulation based on the latest data. Imagine how scary it would be to look up and see a comet literally filling the sky...

 

eoXfKeJurl4#!

 

I'm guessing that, if current predicitons hold, this will be the closest cometary pass to terrestrial planet in recorded history... what's with the solar system lately?!

[metalnwood]

Yes, we do get it good down here. All those objects are available to see. I have. 16" truss I built and a friend has a 20" he did. I have seen all the good stuff in both. Nice views :)

[RIPTIDE]

I never did like Mars anywayz. I hope it hits and shows Mars a lesson.

[NineLine]

We should send up Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck just as a test run to see if they can stop this one....

[Speed]

I never did like Mars anywayz. I hope it hits and shows Mars a lesson.

 

It could actually measurably improve the habitability of Mars by delivering a trillion tons of volatiles to the Martian surface. A leading theory for how Earth got its oceans is cometary impacts.

[RIPTIDE]

It could actually measurably improve the habitability of Mars by delivering a trillion tons of volatiles to the Martian surface. A leading theory for how Earth got its oceans is cometary impacts.

Good. We could come 'Liberate' the crap out of them Martians.

 

Never did like them after they visited me in 1999 and probed me....

[NineLine]

Good. We could come 'Liberate' the crap out of them Martians.

 

Never did like them after they visited me in 1999 and probed me....

 

Randy Quaid?

[sslechta]

Never did like them after they visited me in 1999 and probed me....

 

:megalol: Nice.... Damn martians.

[RIPTIDE]

Randy Quaid?

hahahah I heard of him before.. hahahah :megalol:

[NRG-Vampire]

http://www.space.com/19671-comet-pan-starrs-photos-images-2013.html

 

[Speed]

Apparently, the latest odds put a collision with Mars at 1 in 1250, or 0.08%.

 

It's two weeks old, but Phil Plait (the "Bad Astronomer") has an interesting article on comet Siding Springs here:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/28/mars_impact_the_red_planet_may_get_hit_by_a_comet_in_october_2014.html

 

So apparently, the comet may be as large as FIFTY kilometers. It's also moving faster than solar escape velocity, and backwards around the Sun now too (as compared to the other planets), so the impact with Mars would be at an incredibly fast 56 km/s. So it will become an interstellar wanderer assuming it doesn't hit Mars. Something must have given it a boost in velocity... why can't they run the orbit backwards yet and figure out what that was? :huh:

 

Plait also points out that there would be enough suborbital debris kicked up that it would probably destroy our Martian satellites too. Certainly, if the thing was 50 km in diameter, I wouldn't give anything on Mars much of a chance- this would be one of the most energetic impacts Mars has experienced since the end of the Late Heavy Bombardment.

 

In comparison, using a comet density of 0.6 g/cm^3, if the comet really had a diameter of 50 km and it hit Mars at 56 km/s, it would pack around 300 times the energy of the impact that killed off the dinosaurs here on Earth.

 

Also, I looked it up, and now they think that the comet WON'T cause a meteor storm on Mars, which is confusing to me, because Mars will be DEEP within the coma of the comet. I guess the dust grains get launched off the nucleus at much slower speed than the gas?

Edited March 14, 2013 by Speed

[Speed]

Not really related, but good news:

 

ESA teaming up with Russia for Mars sample return mission

 

Basically, it looks like they are going to try to drill 2 meters underground, retrieve a soil sample, and return it to Earth. It seems very ambitious to me, considering that neither the ESA or Roskosmos has ever had a successful Mars lander, and heck, Russia has never even had a fully successful Mars mission (the ESA has though). Let is hope that this time, the Russian Mars curse won't strike again... after a string of failures, Russia badly needs a successful interplanetary science mission!

 

And if it actually works... we might finally figure out if there is or was life on Mars. There is the very real prospect Martian life could still alive today, hiding from the radiation underground, and this mission just might bring some back :)

[EtherealN]

Well, the russians did have successful Venus missions at least. :)

[Pilotasso]

It could actually measurably improve the habitability of Mars by delivering a trillion tons of volatiles to the Martian surface. A leading theory for how Earth got its oceans is cometary impacts.

 

I think its the opposite. Mars gravity is very low, atmo very low density, no magnetosphere to speak of, an inpact will cause most volatile material from the comet AND any watter hidden beneath the surface to escape back into space.

 

The hole left would be interesting to study though.

[Speed]

I think its the opposite. Mars gravity is very low, atmo very low density, no magnetosphere to speak of, an inpact will cause most volatile material from the comet AND any watter hidden beneath the surface to escape back into space.

 

The hole left would be interesting to study though.

 

I might agree that significant atmospheric loss could occur if this were an asteroid, but it's a comet, and it's largely made up of water ice and dry ice, so it should deliver far more than it takes away. Mars still has a respectable level of gravity- its escape velocity is like 5 km/s. Those billions or trillions of tons of volatiles in the comet will come to a dead stop in an instant, and then rapidly cool as they expand outward. For a significant amount of carbon dioxide to escape from Mars from thermal heating alone, it must heat up to hundreds or thousands of degrees, and stay at that temperature for a long time. In reality, Mars will quickly cool again.

 

The shockwave will probably be enough to locally blast a portion of the atmosphere into space, but again, that ought to be far outweighed by the increase the comet provides. The mass of the volatiles in a large comet is not insignificant in comparison to the mass of the Martian atmosphere. If the comet were like, 30 km across, it might contain as much CO2 as 10% or more of the Martian atmosphere!

 

AFAIK, the current thinking is that the most damaging factor to the Martian atmosphere is Mar's lack of a magnetic field. Without a magnetic field, it cannot shield its atmosphere from being slowly eroded by the solar wind.

 

Oh and finally, using comet and asteroid impacts to terraform Mars is one of the main terraforming methods that has been proposed...

Edited March 14, 2013 by Speed

[Cedaway]

The question is, in case of impact, how much time will it take to the 'dust' to come back down on the ground? How can we study the ground (and the crater) if we can't see through?

As the athmosphere is much less dense as earth one, at 56km/s, it would take less than a second to reach the ground at full speed, without having the time to be dismantled by ahe athmosphere. Imagine the energy transfer in the soil! And the consequences...

That would be really interesting. (Kind of experiment that is better done on mars than earth...)

 

(And for those interested in the magnetic fileds of mars, (here too).

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

http://www.space.com/20045-comet-hit-mars-2014.htmlIt seems to be a busy time for comets, if you're in the southern hemisphere, you should step outside, you might get to see something like this:

 

This is my last day in Peru. Although, I am at 3200m altitude, I am surrounded by mountains and the sky was always somewhat cloudy. I did not see much of stars, or sky in the past week or so. I had a somewhat clear sky only one evening, and was overwhelmed on how detailed I could se Orion and Taurus constelations.

[Jona33]

Good. We could come 'Liberate' the crap out of them Martians.

 

Never did like them after they visited me in 1999 and probed me....

 

[Speed]

Here's a source, not a very good one, but one anyways, claiming that most likely, the comet impact would improve Mars habitability:

http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/

 

In regards to Martian habitability, it sounds like a battle between global warming, allowing Mars to keep its supplemented and melted atmosphere in a gaseous phase, and global cooling causing the atmosphere to freeze out, with the person quoted (this Robert Matson) feeling that global warming would probably prevail overall, leaving a post-impact Mars with a thicker atmosphere. It would be nice to get more sources, but I don't see any.

 

Personally, I'm thinking that yes, dust would be kicked up into the Mars atmosphere causing a global cooling effect, but we have to remember that the Martian atmosphere is much thinner, so that dust probably could not stay suspended for as long as decades it can on Earth. Then again, even a dust-clouded Earth isn't cold enough for large parts of its atmosphere to freeze out on the ground. Mars is already that cold today- it's polar ice caps are largely dry ice. Hell, it snows dry ice on Mars during the winter. IIRC, the Pheonix lander even spotted a time where it was snowing water ice and dry ice simultaneously.

Edited March 15, 2013 by Speed