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War in Korea?


Kusch

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You forgot to add the "again".

 

This has happened before (there is a long-standing conflict regarding those islands since the sea border for them was drawn up unilaterally by the UN at the tail end of the 1950-53 war) and I don't think it'll escalate to anything full-scale. If the NK military leadership has some sanity they'll know that their equipment is too obsolete (in spite of their numbers) to allow an effective war, and the south would suffer too much damage if it decided to press on.

 

But then again, there is the possibility of someone on either side going insane and deciding to escalate, which would be unpleasant.

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It wouldn't be again, the Korean war has never formally ended, we'd just end the ceasefire ;).

 

But no, things like this happen all the time around the border regions. The politicians will talk a bit as always, various news programmes will tell us North Korea is going to end the world, and then as suddenly as it happened everything will go away.

 

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You forgot to add the "again".

 

This has happened before (there is a long-standing conflict regarding those islands since the sea border for them was drawn up unilaterally by the UN at the tail end of the 1950-53 war) and I don't think it'll escalate to anything full-scale. If the NK military leadership has some sanity they'll know that their equipment is too obsolete (in spite of their numbers) to allow an effective war, and the south would suffer too much damage if it decided to press on.

 

But then again, there is the possibility of someone on either side going insane and deciding to escalate, which would be unpleasant.

 

Sorry, but north korea does not have numeral advantage, both sides have up to 8 mil people in reserve, while the north korea has 1,5 mil active soldiers, the south only has 0,5. But you have to know that south korea always has usa nearby... So it's basicly balanced, except the fact that north korean troops have obsolete equipment...

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Eddie, what I meant specifically with "again" was "skirmishes in that area".

 

Lordwolf, reserves are one thing, but 1,5m vs 0.5m is not something to be scoffed at - especially since we aren't talking about something on the scale of invading the soviet union or china or mainland USA where the sheer size of the territory would offer ample time to organize a mobilization.

 

Also, "USA nearby" is ~28k servicemen across all services actually on Korean soil, and ~35k servicemen in Japan. There wouldn't be hundreds of thousands of troops flown in from the immediate area on day one or day 7, and substantial additions from mainland US would be further delayed by so many being commited in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

So imo my point still stands - the NK can use numerical advantage to mount an offensive, but obsolete equipment would prevent them from following through with it, leaving enough capability for the SK to mobilize while the USAF and Navy obliterate all lines of communication and supply that the NK relies on, at which point the war turns. But on the other end of the spectrum the south cannot expect to conduct a successful offensive since the border positions are just too fortified and too numerous to do it with acceptable casualties and collateral damage (remember: Seoul is in artillery range of the DMZ...). Therefore: neither party wants to escalate whatever happened now into a resumption of the war. (As long as they are sane...)

 

Another complication for NK as a possible aggressor is that they definitely would not have China to fall back on in case things go wrong - China is too interwoven in global trade and industry with the US and the west to risk entering such a conflict.

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Eddie, what I meant specifically with "again" was "skirmishes in that area".

 

Lordwolf, reserves are one thing, but 1,5m vs 0.5m is not something to be scoffed at - especially since we aren't talking about something on the scale of invading the soviet union or china or mainland USA where the sheer size of the territory would offer ample time to organize a mobilization.

 

Also, "USA nearby" is ~28k servicemen across all services actually on Korean soil, and ~35k servicemen in Japan. There wouldn't be hundreds of thousands of troops flown in from the immediate area on day one or day 7, and substantial additions from mainland US would be further delayed by so many being commited in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

So imo my point still stands - the NK can use numerical advantage to mount an offensive, but obsolete equipment would prevent them from following through with it, leaving enough capability for the SK to mobilize while the USAF and Navy obliterate all lines of communication and supply that the NK relies on, at which point the war turns. But on the other end of the spectrum the south cannot expect to conduct a successful offensive since the border positions are just too fortified and too numerous to do it with acceptable casualties and collateral damage (remember: Seoul is in artillery range of the DMZ...). Therefore: neither party wants to escalate whatever happened now into a resumption of the war. (As long as they are sane...)

 

Another complication for NK as a possible aggressor is that they definitely would not have China to fall back on in case things go wrong - China is too interwoven in global trade and industry with the US and the west to risk entering such a conflict.

 

You keep forgetting that both sides have borders guarded, that half a milion soldiers is more than enough to hold them off, while the population mobilises. It's not like the noth koreans are capable of doing blitzkrieg with their obsolete comunications / logistsics.

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North Korean leader is dying and wants to get some attention before he goes. I bet he's willing to put his people at risk (no surprise there) for personal satisfaction.

 

I'm almost certain things will escalate there because that old fool wants to be front page CNN.

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S. Korea vows 'stern retaliation' against N. Korea's attacks

 

The same way as they did after that ship got torpedoed? --> "Staging a full scale exercise"

UUuuh They really showed it to the NK's

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It's not like the North Koreans are capable of doing blitzkrieg with their obsolete comunications / logistsics.
You mentioned North Korean "obsolete equipment" several times. Well, what does Al-kaida have in Afghanistan and we are still waging longest war in our history. We are spending millions of dollars a day to fight few hundred guerrilla Al Kaida members equipped with AK-47's.

 

My point is "superior equipment" is not necessarily decisive factor in a military conflict.

 

When it comes to Norht Korea, they have nuclear bombs and waging any kind of war with them would be very stupid. North Korean regime can be successfully defeated without firing a single bullet, but that depends on whether we want it to end that way. And by the way, I don't know if we have any money to wage additional wars. For every dollar my government spends, 40 cents is borrowed. That behavior is not sustainable and additional unnecessary war, war of choice, would make our economical situation worse and just embolden North Korea and other's who don't like us.

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The same way as they did after that ship got torpedoed? --> "Staging a full scale exercise"

UUuuh They really showed it to the NK's

 

True true, but when i see stuff like this i have to wonder where this is going:

 

"Given that North Korea maintains an offensive posture, I think the Army, the Navy and the Air Force should unite and retaliate against (the North's) provocation with multiple-fold firepower," Lee said. "I think enormous retaliation is going to be necessary to make North Korea incapable of provoking us again."

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..I think the Army, the Navy and the Air Force should unite..

hmm.. what does he mean?

I don't think SK will move a finger without serious back up. And we get to the super powers in the region and no one wants that, and so on..

 

The real question is; What do the NorKs want, and are they wanting it because they want it, or because the ChiComs told them to?

 

No way, this is not cold war here. Kim Jong Ill is really ill like in disturbed-ill.


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You mentioned North Korean "obsolete equipment" several times. Well, what does Al-kaida have in Afghanistan and we are still waging longest war in our history. We are spending millions of dollars a day to fight few hundred guerrilla Al Kaida members equipped with AK-47's.

 

My point is "superior equipment" is not necessarily decisive factor in a military conflict.

 

When it comes to Norht Korea, they have nuclear bombs and waging any kind of war with them would be very stupid. North Korean regime can be successfully defeated without firing a single bullet, but that depends on whether we want it to end that way. And by the way, I don't know if we have any money to wage additional wars. For every dollar my government spends, 40 cents is borrowed. That behavior is not sustainable and additional unnecessary war, war of choice, would make our economical situation worse and just embolden North Korea and other's who don't like us.

I'm sorry, but how can you compare talibans to North Koreans? NKs have fully developed military branch, own teritory and are capable of inflicting a full scale war.To be more specific, Talibands are just hiding and winning a war of attrition; while N. Koreans are able to take active actions. In my opinion, Kim Jong is just looking for more attention, either that, or he has fed up with south koreans provocative acts.

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If the NK military leadership has some sanity
You're kidding, right? When has North Korean leadership ever had sanity?

 

North Korea gets away with so much because we rely on the UN to "reprimand" them, and the UN is a complete joke.

 

I am slightly worried about conflict though, seeing how I'm planning to teach English in Japan and possibly in Korea within the next few years. One of my classmates is station over there in Uijeongbu.

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