The biggest mistake in military aviation history?

[FanBoy2006.01]

I must firstly point out that I am usually the last person to find out any thing. So this post is not about any new information, but rather about my opinions.

 

 

Here are the basic assumptions that I have made in coming to my conclusion:

 

 

Firstly: The F 22 is similar to other latest generation fighters.

What I mean with this is that it is highly agile, has great acceleration, great avionics, etc.

I don't want to turn this into an argument about the above stated point. We all know about the advertised capabilities of the F 22 and that it is the best in some categories (Like acceleration, probably radar, etc.). I just wanted to point out that it has similar capabilities.

Maybe this is a bit vague but bare with me.

 

 

Secondly: It has one unique capability that no other 5th generation aircraft has (JSF not yet in service.).

That is it's stealth capability. This gives it the capability to engage opposing fighters without their pilots even knowing that they are under attack.

Here I also don't want to turn it into an argument about that once the AIM120 goes active the other pilot will detect it, etc.

Basically the F 22 has the capability of : “Look first, shoot first.” in nearly all scenarios.

 

 

Thirdly: American politicians has decided in their wisdom to get only a small number of F 22's in regard to the number that were originally planned for. Pearls of wisdom like, current wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are against insurgency so all future wars will be like that and full out conventional warfare is just to terrible to be waged, no one will do that. And my favorite, we Americans fight in coalitions not our enemies.

At present the F 22 will also not be on offer for the allies of the USA (Just to damned expensive and and the technology is to sensitive to risk letting it fall into the wrong hands.).

This has created the status quo where non stealth 5th generation can function and thrive.

 

 

Fourthly: Russia is developing a 5th generation stealth fighter to counter the F 22. I don't know if the project is still going on or has been canceled.

In my opinion this aircraft does not even need to be a match for the F 22. All it need is the capability of outclassing non stealth 5th generation fighters like Rafael, Grippen, Eurofighter, etc. (Look first, shoot first capability over these aircraft.).

In my opinion, such a goal would be achievable (To beat non stealth 5th generation fighters in BVR combat.).

 

 

 

 

Conclusion:

The proliferation of such an aircraft in the world (Say in a decade from now.) could upset the balance of power between many nations that are opposed to each other (Like Pakistan and India.)

 

 

Also, if your cheaper (Than F 22.) stealth aircraft also has a reasonable air-to-ground capability with descent range it could cause even a bigger imbalance of power (The ability to attack tactical and strategic ground targets before they can be engaged by SAM's, other fighters, etc.).

 

 

In my opinion, if such an scenario plays out in the future, it could lead to major conventional conflicts because such an aircraft would create the impression (Correct or incorrect.) that wars are winnable.

Also, if your country is in a serious standoff with a neighboring country and you or they (Or both.) have stealth aircraft that could basically destroy targets without the other party being able to stop them, it could lead to leaders deciding that preemptive strikes are the only option.

 

 

My conclusion: Countries without the ability to counter stealth technology (Nearly all countries.) in some way or another might find themselves in a dire situation in the future if their enemies have stealth weapons (Fighters, RPV's/UAV's, Cruise missiles, etc.).

 

 

Thus, in my opinion: The biggest mistake in military aviation history might be that when it became apparent that the USA was developing stealth aircraft, everybody (Including her allies.) didn't follow suit.

[britgliderpilot]

I give this thread . . . . one and a half pages? :P

 

 

Stealth is certainly a decisive advantage. It's also bloody expensive.

 

Most other countries just can't afford to match that level of R&D investment - and that's something that's been going on since the 60's, with the Blackbird and the F-117.

 

 

In the event of a future airborne conflict, it's likely that an F-22 would defeat most threats you can see at the moment - but in the majority of cases, the know-how and funding for others to produce an aircraft of that capability Simply Doesn't Exist.

 

A mistake implies you could have done something differently - I don't think that's true here.

[TucksonSonny]

 

Thus, in my opinion: The biggest mistake in military aviation history might be that when it became apparent that the USA was developing stealth aircraft, everybody (Including her allies.) didn't follow suit.

 

Here is my opinion about the F-22:

It is like buying the best (quad core pc with 2x8800GTX's SLI available today) and put all your money on that project and as a result 3 year later you see all people buying cheaper and more performing computers than yours .

4 years ago my Fx-55@2.6Ghz stock was beating the pentium 4 Prescott oc @5.2Ghz with 3dmark05 (it was the CPU of the year 2003/2004).

At the moment it is pawned even by the cheapest core 2 available.

 

 

 

Anyway the 3 year advantage in IT sector would translate in about 10 year advantage for the military aviation sector.

 

Anyhow, pretty soon fanbois will jump in and announce that the F-22 will dominate about everything for the next 30 years :D.

[Force_Feedback]

Here is my opinion about the F-22:

It is like buying the best (quad core pc with 2x8800GTX's SLI available today) and put all your money on that project and as a result 3 year later you see all people buying cheaper and more performing computers than yours .

 

Anyway the 3 year advantage in IT sector would translate in about 10 year advantage for the military aviation sector.

Anyhow, pretty soon fanbois will jump in and announce that the F-22 will dominate about everything for the next 30 years :D.

 

Ok, this is my fisrt, and probably last post in this thread: I completely agree with Sonny. Yes the F-22 is uber now, and will not lose much of its uber-ness in 10 years, but if it would have to go against flocks of well-linked cheaper fighters, be it a rusty mig-29 with the latest avionics or a EF-2000, numbers will count in the future. Alternatively other nations come up with their own projects, but the service numbers will be significantly lower than the F-22 in US service.

 

So, time will tell.

 

And on that bombshell it's time to end this, see you in the next F-22 while/praise/troll thread next week... :lol:

[Groove]

Ack @ Sonny, especially about the fanboys.

 

Watch out, its 7 AM in New York, soon the war will beginn.

 

Popcorn anyone ?

[FanBoy2006.01]

Gee, from the look of it my thread not only did not take off but cartwheeled and exploded on the runway!

Well I guess I am going to have to put in some more posts just to get it to the dire one and a half page prediction of Britgliderpilot.

 

 

Remember that the first stealth project was launched back in 1945 but was canceled shortly afterwards. I bet it would have been a hell of a lot cheaper to develop stealth aircraft today if the world just kept going with the concept.

 

 

As for a mistake. If Russia (I don't know if they canceled it or not.) develops I stealth fighter in the near future where will it place the Grippen, Eurofighter, etc. Like I said before. Just something that will beat non stealth fighters in BVR combat. It does not need to be the best dogfighter. It does not need supercruise capability (Although that is a huge advantage and then again it seems that the Russians are already developing such engines.).

 

 

Once again I am not talking about a stealth fighter to counter the F 22. I am talking about a stealth fighter that will be able to beat everybody else. Excluding JSF of course.

 

 

The USA isn't going to defend everybody with F 22's that are at war. Especially with such a small number of airframes.

 

 

Just to reiterate: my post is about how stealth technology can upset the balance of power between hostile nations and lead to war. Not about how the F 22 pawns all.

 

 

I will stand back and leave this smoldering plane wreck now. :(

[britgliderpilot]

I'm not quite following your logic here . . . .

 

 

You're saying that the F-22 being better than everyone else is going to cause a war between the nations with aircraft of lower capability?

 

 

For the record, the Russians can't afford a new aircraft, let alone a stealthy one. Seen their air force spending recently?

[EricJ]

Nope unfortunately not, I've been too busy to stop by the Kremlin and attend the meetings, so if you wouldn't mind faxing me a copy of the papers, It'd be much appreciated :D

 

Seriously though, that bad?

[CoNa]

I'll give the Raptor 20 years on the fighter throne.

If we look into the future, I don't think the F-22 will have a chance.

A pack of cheaper,smaller,more agile, more stealthier UCAVs will probably be the way to go. A sad day for pilots, but that's war.

[britgliderpilot]

(looks shifty. hides paperwork in safe under bed)

 

 

. . . . . seriously, with the publicised upgrade program of a whole ten Flankers (and perhaps a bomber) a year, I really don't think they've got the cash to spend on an advanced fighter program.

[Prophet]

When I saw the title, I was thinking F14....

[GGTharos]

Ooo. Corsair/Viper magnet here!

[Groove]

Am i the only guy around thinking the F-22 is overrated ?

[Prophet]

Yup.

[GGTharos]

Do you think the Su-27 series is overrated too?

[skinners]

Am i the only guy around thinking the F-22 is overrated ?

 

Count me in :thumbup:

[Groove]

Do you think the Su-27 series is overrated too?

 

partially maybe, but on russian side the S-300 SAM System could be overrated too.

 

But deception of your enemy is a part of the game ;)

[GGTharos]

In other words 'uhhh no russian stuff isn't really overrated' ... ok. ;)

 

I'm not sure what's 'overrated' about the F-22. It's been stated to dominate in air to air, and it -will-. That is its job, and it -is- unmatched. So. Now, what's overrated about it? ;)

[Groove]

Well i would take back my "overrated" accousation on the F-22 after seeing it in a full-scale engagement against other countries latest airframes. But this will never happen ^^

 

So the F-22 has no weakness ? Put 10 F-22 against 40 latest Su-27 derivates with latest weapons and the F-22 will smoke the Su-27s long before they even know what happened ?

[Frostie]

I can hear the thunder,

Truth is everything is overrated ,well everything bar MY Propaganda.:doh:

[skinners]

In other words 'uhhh no russian stuff isn't really overrated' ... ok. ;)

 

I'm not sure what's 'overrated' about the F-22. It's been stated to dominate in air to air, and it -will-. That is its job, and it -is- unmatched. So. Now, what's overrated about it? ;)

 

Nothing is perfect.

[Prophet]

Well i would take back my "overrated" accousation on the F-22 after seeing it in a full-scale engagement against other countries latest airframes. But this will never happen ^^

 

So the F-22 has no weakness ? Put 10 F-22 against 40 latest Su-27 derivates with latest weapons and the F-22 will smoke the Su-27s long before they even know what happened ?

 

Well if they cant see em.....

 

So each F22 fires 4 AMRAAMs. By the time they go active, considering they dont expect it coming.... not really enough time to react.

 

Now I am not sure, but I am guessing AESA radar may help pick up those F22's, but from what I have read about the previous gen doppler pulse, its hard within visual.

[britgliderpilot]

Nothing is perfect.

 

Except the F-15's combat record? ;)

[Groove]

Now I am not sure, but I am guessing AESA radar may help pick up those F22's, but from what I have read about the previous gen doppler pulse, its hard within visual.

 

So basically the F-22 is "invisible" to older radars on all angles ? Or just head-on ?

[OldFrankHog]

That as got to suck. I would guess the only thing to do if a F-22 spikes you is to turn away from it and run...I know thats what I would do rather then eat a '120 shot in the front teeth.

 

So are you saying the F-22 is the biggest mistake in aviaion history ? Or the fact that no other country as made a equivalent is a mistake ? /confused :helpsmilie: