North Korea/South Korea

[Stickers]

I'm highly interested in what is going on over there right now. I struggle to find people irl to discuss it, so I bring it to you guys! What are your guys thoughts on the torpedo incident? What's the future for that part of the world? Will this blow over? War?

[Pilotasso]

I sense many pages, sorry bob hijaked the pridiction this time :)

 

My opinion, Norths has alawys been unpredictable, anything can happen.

[Kuky]

not good...

[topol-m]

I don`t think a full scale war will be engaged. At most an aircraft or two downed, some artillery shells fired... aaand going back behind the fence barking at each other :)

[SuperKungFu]

I don't think it would lead to war

 

Every now and then, N Korea attacks the South, and then S Korean refuse to send food "aid" to the North (mind as well since it primarily feeds the NK armed forces and secret police, not the starving population). And then the North threatens to shoot the next Taepodong missile and our leaders forces Japan and South to send food in the end to keep the peace. Although this situation is a bit more serious than other times, hopefully no war breaks out.

[Mustang]

North Korean military 'told to prepare for war"

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/25/north-korean-military-prepare-war

[EtherealN]

What's the future for that part of the world? Will this blow over? War?

 

I know this is cheesy, but I have to point out that technically they are at war already and have been for 50 years. It's a bit of a funny situation to have aid and such stuff being sent across the border while technically being at a state of war.

 

I don't think this will be causing the war to go full-scale again though. The north has missiles, some fizzling nukes (still would hurt Seoul badly), and a huge amount of infantry. The south would have superiority, and the north knows that and knows that the south has allies - something the north doesn't really have anymore. So the north cannot go to war. The south might know it would be able to "win", but with the sheer weight of numbers that the north has standing it wqould be an extremely expensive victory.

 

So, like topol-m said: there'll be a while of posturing and then it'll go back to normal.

[SuperKungFu]

South Korean must act with restraint because IIRC Seoul in within the artillery range of N Korea's gound-based artillery. The Rand Corporation estimated that there are enough tube artillery or MRLs, just beyond the DMZ, to rain down at least 175,000 rounds on Seoul in the first day of conflict. So, the South Koreans must also consider this fact. Even if the US responses to a blatant attack by the North, it would take days to effectively devastated the North. Our troops, in the DMZ, are but a tripwire and a speed bump.

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

South Korea sunk a North Korea boat few months ago, isn't that right? BTW, North Korea has nukes.

[GGTharos]

Apparently certain analysts with a bit better understanding and current knowledge of the area and particular deployments and fortifications, as well as knowledge of the NK military, think that at this time the NK army would be having a lot of trouble getting past the DMZ, let alone the layered defense set up after that.

 

Apparently the situation you describe was current a decade ago, but no longer so today.

 

South Korean must act with restraint because IIRC Seoul in within the artillery range of N Korea's gound-based artillery. The Rand Corporation estimated that there are enough tube artillery or MRLs, just beyond the DMZ, to rain down at least 175,000 rounds on Seoul in the first day of conflict. So, the South Koreans must also consider this fact. Even if the US responses to a blatant attack by the North, it would take days to effectively devastated the North. Our troops, in the DMZ, are but a tripwire and a speed bump.

[GGTharos]

The problem is that it's not well known who provoked whom, but at that time those were surface skirmishes. The whole midget sub thing is a different deal now.

 

South Korea sunk a North Korea boat few months ago, isn't that right? BTW, North Korea has nukes.

[Maximus_G]

BTW, North Korea has nukes.

OR it wants US to guess whether it does really have nukes. It works almost as good as actually having them.

[EtherealN]

South Korea sunk a North Korea boat few months ago, isn't that right? BTW, North Korea has nukes.

 

No, North Korea sunk a South Korean boat a few months ago. What's happening now is that the south is coming out and stating that it has absolute evidence that this was not an accident - it was a torpedo attack.

 

Last time I see a northern ship actually gettin sunk was in 2002. There was an incident where an NK vessel was damaged in a skirmish in November last year, though.

 

As for their nukes - yes, they have them, but I've yet to see anything that indicates that it has nukes that would be classed as more than tactical. And they'll know quite well that there's submarines floating around outside the coast, each with more firepower than the combined effect of all explosives both nuclear and conventional in the DPRK. :P

[EtherealN]

OR it wants US to guess whether it does really have nukes. It works almost as good as actually having them.

 

Aye, a page out of the Israeli "nuclear ambiguity" textbook, though with the exception that the DPRK does openly claim to have them - the ambiguity is whether those tests were fizzles, down-yield tests, size of the stockpile, reliability of delivery means and so on.

[Groove]

Since when NK has nukes?

 

NK's only bargain are 50.000 artillery tubes pointing on Seol.

[EtherealN]

They "have nukes" in the sense that they have performed nuclear tests that did result in a nuclear explosion, although opinions vary on whether they were actually successful in the sense of achieving their design yield. (I think the most quoted yield was something like 1.4 kiloton.)

 

Whether they have entered production and are miniaturized enough to be mounted onto missiles or aircraft... who knows? I'd bet on "probably not" but...

[Shaman]

It's the beginning of military coup within NK. NK generals know they face annihilation in case of war. Better choice to lock King Kong II and his closest devotees inside bunkers and then surrender to UN forces after brief fighting.

 

Think this way. SK ship was torpedoed - who benefits? Yes, we are almost sure now that it was NK torpedo, but do we know if NK ship actually launched it?

So who benefits? This kind of attack quite reminds me of miniature submarines that were used by Japanese in WWII that were sneaking into harbours and waiting on the seabed for proper time to attack and retreat. Black operation of some sort organized by some top gov. agency, organization, corporation? So who benefits from this?

We all know NK is mass producing USD and their goal was to destabilize economies based on USD. China has its reserves in USD. China cooperates industrialy with NK, probably in exchange to control this practice. At the same point involving US into SK/NK disputes drain US resources even more (already involved into conflict with jihad). This puts "quiet" China within years even more ahead of US with its economy and military might.

Edited May 26, 2010 by Shaman

[Groove]

Do you have a link to that nuclear explosion? It seems i missed it. I know of a approx 0.75kt like explosion some years ago most probably was TNT.

 

Are there any hard proof that it was actually a nuke? Isotopes in the air or something in this direction?

[EtherealN]

What you are talking about sounds like the 2006 test. The test last year has very varied judgements on it's yield, but it seems 4-8kt is a common conclusion.

 

Excerpt from the university of hamburg: http://www.webcitation.org/5ijYuBsOd

 

I don't think they got isotope readings and such since the test was underground, but it is a known fact that they did get access to nuclear "know-how" from Pakistan in exchange for missile technology wherefore it's not outside the realm of possibility that they could make a bomb.

 

Heck, sweden was close to making a bomb without outsiders giving help like that, but then we turned peacenik after the americans gave guarantees. :P

[Groove]

Thanks for the info !

[SAM77]

BIN LADEN Torpedo!!!!

 

OK i'll be the first NUTCASE

 

US bases under threat in JAPAN!!!! especially Okinawa

 

Strong movement within Japan population to reduce the presence of US bases in Japan

Definitely NO Expansion of current bases etc.......

 

Japanese politicians are using this as a platform for re election

 

Now N Korea supposedly sunk South Korean warship.

Proof equals photos of a torpedo heavily damaged from obvious impact......hmmmmm???????

 

Suddenly politicians in Japan are turning around saying they need US to counter N Korean aggression.

 

Its not about S Korea its about Japan!!!!!!!

 

Scare the masses and you can do what you want!!!!

 

 

Just an alternative view in case the evidence of the N K torpedo is planted faked etc....

[Shaman]

Nuclear warfare soon? Send me to front! BRING IT ON!

NK? F'em, don't need 'em, definitely don't need to feed 'em.

Everything in the world must change, finally, drastically - so we will FINALLY learn and raise new generations that will say NEVER AGAIN!

Edited May 26, 2010 by Shaman

[topol-m]

Its not about S Korea its about Japan!!!!!!!

 

 

What do you mean, man? It`s not like Japan has sunk the SK ship, it`s a conflict between SK and NK. As long as Japan stays neutral I don`t see why it should be involved. Besides NK might want to save its missiles and shells for SK and not provoking another country into war with itself, especially Japan ;)

[topol-m]

Everything in the world must change, finally, drastically - so we will FINALLY learn and raise new generations that will say NEVER AGAIN!

 

Yeah, kids with 3 arms and 4 legs :D I like that :thumbup:

[Shaman]

Topol-m, by what I am seeing he is just suspecting black ops by US to undermine Japanese tries to get rid of US bases from Japanese soil.

The rule "who benefits" - applies. There is enough room for speculation. I do not believe sinking SK ship was a "random" event by a rogue NK vessel.