Syria shoots down Turkish F-4

[lobo]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246

[HiJack]

Not good.

[aaron886]

Rather sensational article title, seeing as the BBC doesn't know what happened...

[RoaringBones]

Whoa..

[Zakatak]

Let's hope the crew survived and this doesn't escalate into anything bigger.

[EtherealN]

Rather sensational article title, seeing as the BBC doesn't know what happened...

 

The shoot-down is confirmed by the Syrians, though there is dispute about the location of the aircraft when the engagement occured. Word is that Turkish and Syrian coast guards are co-operating in locating a pilot, who is reportedly confirmed to be alive but at sea in his rescue kit.

 

Would not be the first time an aircraft is shot down amidst disagreements about it's exact location and intent.

[RoaringBones]

I think its about to considering they both have naval ships out at sea already its about to get interesting.

 

And the fact they've taken in over 1,000 Syrian Refugees.

[Ryback]

The shoot-down is confirmed by the Syrians, though there is dispute about the location of the aircraft when the engagement occured. Word is that Turkish and Syrian coast guards are co-operating in locating a pilot, who is reportedly confirmed to be alive but at sea in his rescue kit.

 

Would not be the first time an aircraft is shot down amidst disagreements about it's exact location and intent.

 

Yes i can confirm that.Syria claims that RF-4E was 1 km inside their territorial waters.A Captain and a Lieutenant were the crew , few hours ago the rescue signal is turned off.They're missing.:mad:

[Kenan]

Well, if they crossed with military jet into their airspace..the outcome was not really surprising - especially with all the tensions around.

[Silver_Dragon]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126221721460173.html

Turkey says jet downing cannot be ignored

President Abdullah Gul says everything that needed to be done following the incident would be done.

 

Very bad....

[tflash]

RF-4E: so it could have been a Recce mission?

[FLANKERATOR]

The F-4 was unarmed, most probably a reconnaissance mission.

Syrian AAA said aircraft was flying fast and low.

Turkish government is having a second meeting today...

[Pikey]

I was bored and hungover so I took the "tracing" sourced on the Syrian national website http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2012/06/23/427102.htm and traced it over Google Earth.

 

I then traced the flight path onto Google Earth. I saved and noted some distances and uploaded them for your viewing as the zip file attached.

 

Some conclusions...based on the recount of the route provided by Syria.

 

1. If the flight path is to be believed there is only one location where the flight got to 1km from the coast for AAA. This was at Ras Al-Basset.

 

2. The aircraft would have been headed about 45 degrees up the coast, out to sea, about 12KM inside Syria's border, headed towards the Turkish border at the point where it might have gotten in range of a 1km distance described by Syria.

 

3. After this 'point' the aircraft made two left turns away from Turkish airspace, 15km out to sea, almost a 180 degree reversal of direction, then again left to point inland inside Syrian airspace for 25 kilometres.

 

4. The rough distance flown after the 1km clip was 75 kilometres.

 

5. The crash area was 10km short of land, headed directly into shore for 20km.

 

6. A very rough time of flight after the 1km incursion is 10 minutes based on 450mph.

 

Conjecture:

There are two things I don't really understand. If the Syrians account is even roughly accurate they tracked it for a long time. To have made north Cyprus and made the turns it did leaves nothing extra for the 90 minute quoted flight. But for the plane to have been hit at Ras al-Basset it flew in a damaged state firstly back towards Syria and out to sea and then directly inland from 30km off the shore for 10 minutes and some 75km. Which after being hit is more or less the opposite of what would be sensible.

 

A catastrophic hit at low altitude wouldn't have given this timeline and would have put the plane beyond land based AAA.

 

It seems more likely to have been a weapon with a larger range or the Syrian flight plan is inaccurate.

 

Note, i'm not debating the right or wrong of the actions. The place they quoted is within 40km of a military airforce base, just pointing out some oddities.

Turkishf4.zip

[Pikey]

Oh and for info if 90 minutes is roughly accurate and the first mark on the map from the Syrian route is where the F4 turned left from an original route out of Erhac, then its an absolute minimum route of 518 miles and an average speed of 389 mph

[RoaringBones]

Soo now will people take bets on who has the better pilots? :P..Serious note! Good Job on that pikey,but i too don't understand that last bit.

[hassata]

Is this anywhere near the port where Russian ships are based? Could have been a Russian manned battery.

[EtherealN]

Well, if they crossed with military jet into their airspace..the outcome was not really surprising - especially with all the tensions around.

 

Well, military aircraft violating borders isn't exactly an unusual ocurance. If I remember right Sweden and Finland violate each other's airspace like 20 times each per year - with armed aircraft. Fighters are just so fast nowadays it doesn't reuire much of a mistake to suddenly find yourself on the wrong side of a border.

 

Obviously though, tempting such mistakes amidst a volatile situation might not be the smartest thing out there, but since we don't have all the information on what the aircraft was doing and why, as well as the more exact circumstances of the engagement, I don't want to speculate on the beliggerence of either party. Down that route lies a political debate, and we don't want that. ;)

[topol-m]

Is this anywhere near the port where Russian ships are based? Could have been a Russian manned battery.

 

It would be a pure speculation to assume that.

[Pikey]

the only speculation I had was that the information provided didnt make a lot of sense.

 

Oh but my that coastline on Syria is stunning, I want to go on holiday there!

 

Re the last bit...if you were talking about the second post it's just another oddity that I felt the distance and average speed was a little high for where the plane had been.

 

Speculation is entertaining for the brain, I like a puzzle but I mean nothing by it.

[Aries]

Actually living "Fallout" will be cool... eh?

 

I have to finally get me that pair of Ray Ban "Aviator" sunglasses... for when the nukes start popping, I'm too close (Croatia, Adriatic Sea) and don't really wanna ruin my eyesight...

 

How will I doo any good on vHawgsmoke if I can't see s**t!??!? :doh:

[Alfa]

Is this anywhere near the port where Russian ships are based?

 

Yes the Russians have a small supply base at a section of the port of Tartus, but at least until recently, this consisted of a couple of births and few warehouses on land, which btw seemed in a pretty sorry state of repair.

 

I know that Russia signed a contract with Syria a few years ago concerning continued access, renovation and possible expansion of this facility in order to support its presence in the Med, but I don't know how much work has been done since. But the "base" is really just a large supply depot and I seriously doubt that it holds much in the way of airdefences.

 

Without going into politics, I think this incident is much more likely to be down to Syrian airdefences being on the edge and over-reacting to the presence of NATO jets close to its territory due to the situation within the country and subsequent mounting international pressure.

[tflash]

Another possibility is that it was a genuine recce mission by the TuAF in the border region. That would be unsurprising, given the tense situation and the Syrian refugees pooring into Turkey.

Since a recce flight is carefully planned and meticulously executed, it would mean they would have underestimated the Syrian AD. Maybe they ran into a Pantsir system?

[hassata]

As more information comes out, it looks like it was a recce mission that took off from central Turkey, flew to Cyprus, the turned east and established an orbit in international waters off the coast as -Pikey put together. It must have been tracked for a good while and very accurately because (speculatively) as soon as it strayed just about a kilometer into Syrian airspace, it was immediately and decisively engaged. One thing I can say, things are tense in the region tonight, especially with Turkey talking about an appropriate response. This is just the type of incident that sparks wars.

 

Edit: Here's more on the Russian facility which what I thought to be a prize base lol: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/europe/russian-warships-said-to-be-going-to-naval-base-in-syria.html.

Edited June 23, 2012 by hassata

[EtherealN]

Aye, I've seen speculation whether NATO paragraph 5 will be called into effect. Can get hairy. But of course, if the incident did occur in syrian airspace, that part of the NATO charter is N/A.

[4c Hajduk Veljko]

Aye, I've seen speculation whether NATO paragraph 5 will be called into effect. Can get hairy. But of course, if the incident did occur in syrian airspace, that part of the NATO charter is N/A.

NATO Chapter doesn't matter. NATO action over Yugoslavia violated NATO as well as UN chapter.

 

Thus it is not about NATO Chapter. It is about current geopolitical situation and balance of military power. NATO chapter will not be on the way of NATO countries to attack Syria if they decide to do so.

 

Currently, Turkey is spreading its economical, political and military power over Balkans as well as middle east. This is just another example of that.