I don't think dumb bombs need AFMs, SFM is plenty good enough for them IMO.
What we need is a better modeling of soft damage and armor, for every ground unit.
As in, "hitpoints" of various systems and where they're located on a vehicle, along with directional armor that mitigates incoming damage to a certain point. No amount of 20mm cannon fire should be able to stop a T-90. A 2000lb JDAM missing by 5m should still kill it quite easily.
Once that's improved, they can work on splash damage and fragmentation damage modeling.
The fragments of a 500lb bomb should have a low chance of killing soft targets out to half a mile.