Final release date prediction

[Kalasnkova74]

I’m sure all of us want the complete module to be released Right Meow. But that’s not how complex projects like this work. Every computer software project is one bug away from being delayed. Despite their best efforts, HB or ED may find a problem in testing that could push the F-4E back weeks…months…or even years, depending on the scope of the issue and what steps are needed to fix the problem properly. 
 

No amount of “Are We There Yet?!” threads or comments will eliminate this risk.  We may get a module next month…or instead a heartfelt apology because testing found an issue that will push the release back. 
 

Either way, I’m behind HB and ED. Are you? 
 

 

[MAXsenna]

I’m sure all of us want the complete module to be released Right Meow. But that’s not how complex projects like this work. Every computer software project is one bug away from being delayed. Despite their best efforts, HB or ED may find a problem in testing that could push the F-4E back weeks…months…or even years, depending on the scope of the issue and what steps are needed to fix the problem properly. 
 
No amount of “Are We There Yet?!” threads or comments will eliminate this risk.  We may get a module next month…or instead a heartfelt apology because testing found an issue that will push the release back. 
 
Either way, I’m behind HB and ED. Are you? 
 
 

Affirm!

Sent from my SM-A536B using Tapatalk

[Trooper117]

Of course... it'll come when it's ready. 

[NineGravity]

April 1st at the latest. If it's not already then I can't guess.

[IanHx2]

I confidently predict it will be released on April 1st before mid-day.....    followed by 'gotcha' at 12:01....   

Edited March 9 by IanHx2

[Castor Troy]

Maybe next time HB, do not even give out a release date when announcing a new aircraft. January 25, 2022, HB said the F4 would be released in that year. Here we are, two years later...

[LorenLuke]

5 hours ago, Castor Troy said:

Maybe next time HB, do not even give out a release date when announcing a new aircraft. January 25, 2022, HB said the F4 would be released in that year. Here we are, two years later...

To be fair, their employee availability was cut in half when the nation with those employees was invaded by another a month after that announcement.

[Kalasnkova74]

6 hours ago, Castor Troy said:

Maybe next time HB, do not even give out a release date when announcing a new aircraft. 

Cue forum bickering on why Developer X won’t give anyone a release date on Module Y…..

[Stackup]

3 hours ago, Kalasnkova74 said:

Cue forum bickering on why Developer X won’t give anyone a release date on Module Y…..

That depends entirely on the module/developer and how much information has been previously forthcoming and what has been stated by the devs.  I haven't seen any bickering about release dates for any of the new modules announced in 2022.  Even the A-7 which was announced earlier than those has had no bickering about a release date.

The main difference I see is that none of those developers have ever really said anything about possible release dates.  None of them have ever said things like, "It's releasing this year" or "It's releasing this _insert season_", they've just kept pretty silent and when they do share stuff it's greatly appreciated like Flying Iron's huge writeups at the end of each year.  We know software development is subject to random delays and the devs know that too.  It also helps that these dev teams are keeping a relatively low profile so the only people that really pay attention or remember they exist are the people who are excited for the aircraft they are making and are interested in discussing it with likeminded individuals.

Yet we see some devs time and time again set release windows and then invariably fail to meet those self imposed deadlines.

The F-15E was supposed to release at the end of 2022/beginning of 2023 and Razbam (and ED) kept saying stuff like "soon" and "imminent" yet it still took half the year to release.  The F-4 was set to release in 2022.  Stuff happened and it was delayed.  Then in 2023 there was another big push around Heatblur modules with the announcement that the A-6 AI would release during the summer.  Since that is locked behind the F-4 due to resources as HB have admitted, that means the F-4 was planned to release sometime in the first half of 2023.   Summer came and went with no further information on either the F-4 or the A-6 AI.   And then if we go back just a little bit further, I belive there was a comment made by Cobra on Facebook that the A-6 AI and Early F-14A would release towards the end of Summer 2021.  I guess if you say "it'll release by then" enough times you're bound to be right eventually.

 

5 hours ago, LorenLuke said:

To be fair, their employee availability was cut in half when the nation with those employees was invaded by another a month after that announcement.

We can't keep blaming Ukraine for all this stuff because Heatblur has said that the war only cost them around 6 months of dev time.  Scope creep and bugs likely account for rest of the lost time.  We get it, the war and personal issues caused a delay, they didn't however cause the delays all on their own.

 

And then we come to the likely further delay of the F-4 causing Heatblur to miss their Winter deadline. Yes, I am well aware that they have said "We're still on track for our timeframe." but remember, they said the exact same thing in October of 2022.  That was well after the war in Ukraine started, they should have known by then that they weren't gonna make it.  Took them till late January 2023 to even acknowledge the obvious delay.  The last 2 weeks have had no Phantom Friday anything.  We've had 2 videos released recently that basically just discuss development features, nothing about actual flying, weapons employment, systems, cold start, etc.  They have 10 days left until winter 23-24 ends on the spring equinox.  Without these videos and with no release date yet on Steam to allow those users to preorder, it is highly likely we see yet another delay.  I'm sure the delay will let the module release in a better state, but it seems like they're trying to avoid admitting there will be a delay to the last possible second despite also saying they would let us know as soon as there is a delay.

I'm tired of seeing release windows for things I'm excited for being either outright stated or implied by the devs and then missed, usually with little to no acknowledgment of the delay.  I don't have any problems with devs not giving a release date.  However, if they aren't going to give one, I don't want to hear them make release speculations, which create expectations that then fail to happen.  They need to have better internal communication and maybe a dedicated media person to prevent miscommunications such as the recent "announcement for the announcment of the F-4 release date announcment" that turned out to be not even be an accurate statement as to what was planned.

Sometimes no communication other than "we're still here working on it", is the best way to go about things.  The community will speculate regardless, so there's no reason for the devs to do it too.

[G.J.S]

Lots of these needed around here.

 

[kega76]

The big difference between all the others and HB or RB is that they announce the soon to release products and start selling them. That makes me think that it’s close, it’s sorted out and they are just wrapping up the last bits and pieces. But no. It seems like you can sell a product that is far from finished with no clue on when it’ll be good enough. I don’t mind they using five years developing something. If they want my money, they should ask for development support, investment in the company or something. Rather than selling a something that we are trying to make but it takes a long time and just stick with us because it’s going to be cool sometime thing.

[Silver_Dragon]

Someone needs to remember that ED has the final say on a "release." Third parties have no control over them. If the module doesn't get a "sign-off" from the QA team, any "release date" will be forgotten, fixing whatever needs to be fixed, and it will need to be rescheduled for another round of QA, and only when they have the test, will it be prepared. for release in a future patch.

[Viper33]

11 hours ago, Stackup said:

That depends entirely on the module/developer and how much information has been previously forthcoming and what has been stated by the devs.  I haven't seen any bickering about release dates for any of the new modules announced in 2022.  Even the A-7 which was announced earlier than those has had no bickering about a release date.

The main difference I see is that none of those developers have ever really said anything about possible release dates.  None of them have ever said things like, "It's releasing this year" or "It's releasing this _insert season_", they've just kept pretty silent and when they do share stuff it's greatly appreciated like Flying Iron's huge writeups at the end of each year.  We know software development is subject to random delays and the devs know that too.  It also helps that these dev teams are keeping a relatively low profile so the only people that really pay attention or remember they exist are the people who are excited for the aircraft they are making and are interested in discussing it with likeminded individuals.

Yet we see some devs time and time again set release windows and then invariably fail to meet those self imposed deadlines.

The F-15E was supposed to release at the end of 2022/beginning of 2023 and Razbam (and ED) kept saying stuff like "soon" and "imminent" yet it still took half the year to release.  The F-4 was set to release in 2022.  Stuff happened and it was delayed.  Then in 2023 there was another big push around Heatblur modules with the announcement that the A-6 AI would release during the summer.  Since that is locked behind the F-4 due to resources as HB have admitted, that means the F-4 was planned to release sometime in the first half of 2023.   Summer came and went with no further information on either the F-4 or the A-6 AI.   And then if we go back just a little bit further, I belive there was a comment made by Cobra on Facebook that the A-6 AI and Early F-14A would release towards the end of Summer 2021.  I guess if you say "it'll release by then" enough times you're bound to be right eventually.

 

We can't keep blaming Ukraine for all this stuff because Heatblur has said that the war only cost them around 6 months of dev time.  Scope creep and bugs likely account for rest of the lost time.  We get it, the war and personal issues caused a delay, they didn't however cause the delays all on their own.

 

And then we come to the likely further delay of the F-4 causing Heatblur to miss their Winter deadline. Yes, I am well aware that they have said "We're still on track for our timeframe." but remember, they said the exact same thing in October of 2022.  That was well after the war in Ukraine started, they should have known by then that they weren't gonna make it.  Took them till late January 2023 to even acknowledge the obvious delay.  The last 2 weeks have had no Phantom Friday anything.  We've had 2 videos released recently that basically just discuss development features, nothing about actual flying, weapons employment, systems, cold start, etc.  They have 10 days left until winter 23-24 ends on the spring equinox.  Without these videos and with no release date yet on Steam to allow those users to preorder, it is highly likely we see yet another delay.  I'm sure the delay will let the module release in a better state, but it seems like they're trying to avoid admitting there will be a delay to the last possible second despite also saying they would let us know as soon as there is a delay.

I'm tired of seeing release windows for things I'm excited for being either outright stated or implied by the devs and then missed, usually with little to no acknowledgment of the delay.  I don't have any problems with devs not giving a release date.  However, if they aren't going to give one, I don't want to hear them make release speculations, which create expectations that then fail to happen.  They need to have better internal communication and maybe a dedicated media person to prevent miscommunications such as the recent "announcement for the announcment of the F-4 release date announcment" that turned out to be not even be an accurate statement as to what was planned.

Sometimes no communication other than "we're still here working on it", is the best way to go about things.  The community will speculate regardless, so there's no reason for the devs to do it too.

Thank you for saying this. Agree 100%.

[Hatman335]

Amazing to see such sensible comments that clearly explain where the issue really lies.

[Indyplumber]

I don't have an issue with delays.  Things happen during development and I'd rather have a finished, polished product than something rushed out to meet release expectations.

That being said, I had sworn off pre-ordering any game or product due to previous let downs in the gaming industry.  I broke that oath by pre-ordering the F-4.  I'm okay with the delay so far, but if we go past 6 months on a pre-order then I will likely never do it again for a DCS module.

[Kalasnkova74]

23 hours ago, Stackup said:

That depends entirely on the module/developer and how much information has been previously forthcoming and what has been stated by the devs.  I haven't seen any bickering about release dates for any of the new modules announced in 2022.  Even the A-7 which was announced earlier than those has had no bickering about a release date.

The main difference I see is that none of those developers have ever really said anything about possible release dates.  None of them have ever said things like, "It's releasing this year" or "It's releasing this _insert season_", they've just kept pretty silent ….

…leading to people complaining because “there’s no release date”…

Bottom line, developers are in a no-win scenario on this subject. Say nothing, and people complain about there being no release date or speculate the project is cancelled for lack of updates in a given period. Give a date, and something will happen to cause the devs to miss it. 

[Biggus]

On 3/10/2024 at 3:23 PM, Stackup said:

I'm tired of seeing release windows for things I'm excited for being either outright stated or implied by the devs and then missed, usually with little to no acknowledgment of the delay.  I don't have any problems with devs not giving a release date.  However, if they aren't going to give one, I don't want to hear them make release speculations, which create expectations that then fail to happen.  They need to have better internal communication and maybe a dedicated media person to prevent miscommunications such as the recent "announcement for the announcment of the F-4 release date announcment" that turned out to be not even be an accurate statement as to what was planned.

I think this is a pretty fair criticism.  Particularly the end of 2022 passing with nothing said.  I do recognise that there is no way that any dev can avoid a crowd wielding pitchforks in literally anything they do.  They will always have some part of the audience in an unhappy state, no matter what course they choose.  But if a date is going to missed, there should be some acknowledgement.

We have a clear statement that right now, it is expected that the module will ship in the next couple of weeks.  We have been told that if there is a delay, we will be informed.  As an outsider, I'm inferring because that there is presently no announcement of a Steam pre-order and no firm release date, there will probably be a delay.  But I can also imagine that working with at least two other companies (ED and Steam) means quite a few internal targets that may or may not be achievable in the stated time and therefore it is not yet time to announce a delay.

It'll be here when it's here.

[=475FG= Dawger]

Imagine typing multiple paragraphs agonizing over when you are going to be able to play with your new toy?

It does make for fun reading though. 

[TLTeo]

I wonder how many people were around for the Tomcat release. Or the Mirage F1. Or the Viper (now that was a funny one - people got their shiny toy asap and they loved it right??? /s). Or pretty much any other highly anticipated module.

 

[Nealius]

I've been here for every release since the P-51D. My only criticism is when developers overpromise on delivery. 

[Elf1606688794]

I would love to see updates from the dev teams where they tell us what they're working on, things they find that have to be fixed/reworked and things that still need to be done.

I don't necessarily need a release date.

[Victory205]

No one old enough to play DCS, especially anyone who fancies themselves an adult, should be falling apart over a video game release date. Joking and humor are natural and add to the fun, but drama and victimhood over such banter is not normal.

I would add that it's astonishing to see people here who enjoy history participate in the complaining. From avatars and comments, it's obvious that many of you idolize Robin Olds, who overcame enormous obstacles during his career, and constantly demonstrated courage and strong leadership, yet his admirers get pulled into being upset over extremely trivial matters. You would think that studying the lives of such men (look up James Stockdale) would promote resilience and some level of stoicism.

Pre-Orders offer a significant discount in return for the uncertainty and inevitable difficulties in software development and release date projections. It’s a welcome opportunity, all things considered.

Edited March 11 by Victory205

[Q3ark]

Nobody has announced any delays as far as I know. This has been entertaining but some people need to chill out, it’s just a video game. 

[Ornithopter]

Well, I guess I could go start learning the Strike Eagle...

[javelina1]

5 minutes ago, Ornithopter said:

Well, I guess I could go start learning the Strike Eagle...

I've been flying the A-4, F-5, and F-14, in anticipation of the Rhino.   It'll be here one day soon enough.  Having fun with these other mod's nonetheless...