Ukraine Boeing 737 with at least 160 aboard crashes

[Yurgon]

Given the recent theory that a Tor SAM shot down the aircraft: Is there any plausible explanation why this might have happened?

 

The aircraft was outbound from an international airport on a scheduled flight. Since we have some data on flightradar24.com, ADS-B seems to have been operational, and I would assume that the sqawk/transponder was also operational. The site of the last reported position is just 20 km from the airport.

 

Why on earth would Iran launch a missile against a slow flying aircraft climbing out of Tehran, on a well known departure route, in direct extension of the runway heading of the biggest airport in country?

 

I would assume that any airborne attack would lead into Tehran, not out of it.

 

Plus, the Tor is a medium range system. If one was positioned so close to Tehran, again, it doesn't seem to make any sense whatsoever to shoot at an object that's flying out of the capital instead of into it.

 

Sure, there could always be operator error, and there could always be specific reasons for shooting down an aircraft on purpose that none of us are aware of.

 

But can anyone come up with a plausible reason why Iranian air defenses would have considered firing at an aircraft in that location?

[Jester986]

It's getting to be fairly obvious at this point it was a case of mistaken identity. I know no one is going to trust the US much in this situation but they're saying satellites caught the IR bloom of two missile launches followed by an impact there and spy planes saw a Tor lock the plane. They'll hand the data to Canada to make of it what they will.

[Jester986]

Given the recent theory that a Tor SAM shot down the aircraft: Is there any plausible explanation why this might have happened?

 

The aircraft was outbound from an international airport on a scheduled flight. Since we have some data on flightradar24.com, ADS-B seems to have been operational, and I would assume that the sqawk/transponder was also operational. The site of the last reported position is just 20 km from the airport.

 

Why on earth would Iran launch a missile against a slow flying aircraft climbing out of Tehran, on a well known departure route, in direct extension of the runway heading of the biggest airport in country?

 

I would assume that any airborne attack would lead into Tehran, not out of it.

 

Plus, the Tor is a medium range system. If one was positioned so close to Tehran, again, it doesn't seem to make any sense whatsoever to shoot at an object that's flying out of the capital instead of into it.

 

Sure, there could always be operator error, and there could always be specific reasons for shooting down an aircraft on purpose that none of us are aware of.

 

But can anyone come up with a plausible reason why Iranian air defenses would have considered firing at an aircraft in that location?

 

Panic thinking they were under attack? Maybe they were poorly trained, maybe they were told civilian traffic was grounded. And you'd still fire on a perceived enemy even if it was flying away from you. It's tragic but hardly unique. There's quite a history of Airliners accidentally being shot down.

[Jester986]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents

[gavagai]

It's getting to be fairly obvious at this point it was a case of mistaken identity. I know no one is going to trust the US

 

Our intelligence professionals are not politicians. I think educated people all over the world understand that.

[Harlikwin]

Given the recent theory that a Tor SAM shot down the aircraft: Is there any plausible explanation why this might have happened?

 

The aircraft was outbound from an international airport on a scheduled flight. Since we have some data on flightradar24.com, ADS-B seems to have been operational, and I would assume that the sqawk/transponder was also operational. The site of the last reported position is just 20 km from the airport.

 

Why on earth would Iran launch a missile against a slow flying aircraft climbing out of Tehran, on a well known departure route, in direct extension of the runway heading of the biggest airport in country?

 

I would assume that any airborne attack would lead into Tehran, not out of it.

 

Plus, the Tor is a medium range system. If one was positioned so close to Tehran, again, it doesn't seem to make any sense whatsoever to shoot at an object that's flying out of the capital instead of into it.

 

Sure, there could always be operator error, and there could always be specific reasons for shooting down an aircraft on purpose that none of us are aware of.

 

But can anyone come up with a plausible reason why Iranian air defenses would have considered firing at an aircraft in that location?

 

Breathtaking incompetence? Not the first time thats happened.

[javelina1]

Given the recent theory that a Tor SAM shot down the aircraft: Is there any plausible explanation why this might have happened?

 

The aircraft was outbound from an international airport on a scheduled flight. Since we have some data on flightradar24.com, ADS-B seems to have been operational, and I would assume that the sqawk/transponder was also operational. The site of the last reported position is just 20 km from the airport.

 

Why on earth would Iran launch a missile against a slow flying aircraft climbing out of Tehran, on a well known departure route, in direct extension of the runway heading of the biggest airport in country?

 

I would assume that any airborne attack would lead into Tehran, not out of it.

 

Plus, the Tor is a medium range system. If one was positioned so close to Tehran, again, it doesn't seem to make any sense whatsoever to shoot at an object that's flying out of the capital instead of into it.

 

Sure, there could always be operator error, and there could always be specific reasons for shooting down an aircraft on purpose that none of us are aware of.

 

But can anyone come up with a plausible reason why Iranian air defenses would have considered firing at an aircraft in that location?

 

Does the Tor have an automatic deployment configuration? Rather than being manually fired, it could be set to auto engage? Thinking that if cruise missiles and/or hostile aircraft were inbound, set it to auto. Then the crew hunkers down elsewhere to avoid the AA battery area since it's a target.

 

I saw in another thread someone threw this out there.

 

Regardless, this is such a terrible event. Thoughts and prayers to those family members having to survive this tragic loss.

[flavnet]

Does the Tor have an automatic deployment configuration? Rather than being manually fired, it could be set to auto engage? Thinking that if cruise missiles and/or hostile aircraft were inbound, set it to auto. Then the crew hunkers down elsewhere to avoid the AA battery area since it's a target.

 

I saw in another thread someone threw this out there.

 

Regardless, this is such a terrible event. Thoughts and prayers to those family members having to survive this tragic loss.

 

I also believe it was an accident based on incompetence. In auto mode, anti-aircraft systems are deadly because (even the most advanced) can hit any flying object without discriminating its nature. We remember what happened with SAM Patriot in the two Gulf wars. Perhaps, the battery operators will even have moved away in fear of being hit by some HARM. A prayer for the victims and their families for such an absurd tragedy.

[Holbeach]

Iranian official, says this morning, It was not a missile but mechanical failure of the aircraft and pilots attempted to turn back.

..

[jojo]

[flavnet]

To know the background.

 

https://theaviationist.com/2020/01/10/a-brief-history-of-airliner-shoot-down-incidents-and-hoaxes/

[whiteladder]

Iran has now admitted to accidentally shooting down the aircraft.

[Reflected]

Iran bulldozed the chrashsite. Wonder why....

 

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/irans-unthinkable-act-after-ukrainian-plane-crash/news-story/35e4437316f8783aff33f8459397ab8d?fbclid=IwAR0b8fCo_eWPV8LHc7IXRcCAS66_jqsRs_t_lVT7r4Ja7GCvz3r6Gcyb3Eo#.6wv24

[Weta43]

Given the recent theory that a Tor SAM shot down the aircraft: Is there any plausible explanation why this might have happened?

 

The aircraft was outbound from an international airport on a scheduled flight. Since we have some data on flightradar24.com, ADS-B seems to have been operational, and I would assume that the sqawk/transponder was also operational. The site of the last reported position is just 20 km from the airport.

 

Why on earth would Iran launch a missile against a slow flying aircraft climbing out of Tehran, on a well known departure route, in direct extension of the runway heading of the biggest airport in country?

 

I would assume that any airborne attack would lead into Tehran, not out of it.

 

Plus, the Tor is a medium range system. If one was positioned so close to Tehran, again, it doesn't seem to make any sense whatsoever to shoot at an object that's flying out of the capital instead of into it.

 

Sure, there could always be operator error, and there could always be specific reasons for shooting down an aircraft on purpose that none of us are aware of.

 

But can anyone come up with a plausible reason why Iranian air defenses would have considered firing at an aircraft in that location?

 

Same reason USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655*

People panic under stress.

 

Remember the FAA had told US civilian aircraft to exit the area, and both Al Jazeera and at least 1 website had reported that B-52's had left Diego Garcia for Iran. They'd have been waiting for something inbound...

 

*in case you don't remember, Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas, that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser of the United States Navy. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed and all 290 people on board, including 66 children, were killed. The jet was hit while flying over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, along the flight's usual route, shortly after departing Bandar Abbas International Airport, the flight's stopover location.

[Holbeach]

A Ukrainian aircraft which crashed earlier this week in Iran had flown close to a sensitive military site belonging to the elite Revolutionary Guards and was shot down unintentionally due to human error, the Iranian military said in a statement read on state TV on Saturday.

The responsible parties would be referred to a judicial department within the military and held accountable, the statement said.

All 176 people on board were killed in the crash. The Iranian military statement expressed condolences to the families of the victims.

The United States and Canada had said that the plane was shot down, a claim Iran had initially denied.

 

 

..

[Emu]

RIP to all the victims and thoughts for their families.

[Napa]

Tragic! :( Hopefully something like this doesn't happen again. RIP to all victims and my condolences to their families.

[BitMaster]

Tragic! :( Hopefully something like this doesn't happen again. RIP to all victims and my condolences to their families.

 

 

Sadly I think those things will happen again and again if idiots are in charge on at least one or worse both sides.

 

The ones to blame are imho not the officer who had to make a splitt second decision but the two clowns who's names we all know.

 

Innocent Blood on their hands is their pay, what a dirty show.

[gavagai]

The Iranians blame the United States for the accident because of the heightened tensions.

[Cab]

The Iranians blame the United States for the accident because of the heightened tensions.

 

Maybe they need to be a little more introspective.

[lobo]

The airlines should learn from this as well... there are times when it is best to just stay on the ground.

[Pilotasso]

I wonder why the airspace is not closed to civilian traffic during conflicts. Ukraine, Syria now Iran.

 

Extremely sad news, and I am personally appalled.

[Emu]

Flight radar data in pictures.

 

https://twitter.com/statuses/1215889858302021633

[jojo]

Flight radar data in pictures.

 

https://twitter.com/statuses/1215889858302021633

 

Looks like dead link.

[jojo]

I wonder why the airspace is not closed to civilian traffic during conflicts. Ukraine, Syria now Iran.

 

Extremely sad news, and I am personally appalled.

 

There was no real on going conflict in Iran. USA didn't perform any strike in Iran...